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US will not strike Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has not made any substantial progress on the alleged reports and other associated key issues regarding Iran's nuclear activities.
- Gulf News
- Published: 01:18 September 30, 2008
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has not made any substantial progress on the alleged reports and other associated key issues regarding Iran's nuclear activities.
In its latest report of September 15, the IAEA mentioned that Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment activities by doubling the number of centrifugal units and upgrading its enrichment unit.
As a result, the US called upon the UN Security Council to impose more sanctions on Iran. On the three previous occasions when sanctions were imposed, Tehran was unmoved by the seriousness of the stance of the international body.
Experts believe that at the current level of uranium enrichment, the Iranians will be able to make their first nuclear bomb by the end of 2010.
Over the past five years, the Islamic Republic has ignored calls made by the IAEA, UN Security Council and other establishments to put an end to its uranium enrichment activities.
These bodies were continuously pleading with Iran to enter into a positive dialogue to help in limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons throughout the world.
Recently, Iran stated that it considers the IAEA's efforts as threatening its national security. This is a new development and Iran has threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). If it happens, then it will be a dangerous step because the international community will not be able to monitor its nuclear activities. At the same time, it would portray Iran as a country which is truly seeking to put together a nuclear bomb.
Inasmuch as the US and its allies are worried about the Iranian nuclear programme, so too are the Middle Eastern countries. They fear that a "nuclear" Iran will have an effect on their economy, politics and security. Moreover, the current balance of power in the region will also be altered.
Policy makers in the Middle East do understand that irrespective of the outcome of the US elections, American troops will not be withdrawn from Iraq and the pressure on Iran will not be eased. But will these efforts prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability?
Complex
The situation is complex, and the time element is crucial. The US is going through circumstances that are sizing its international political presence, as economic recession and stagnation loom ahead. The weakening dollar is effecting the US economy and those of other countries which have pegged their currencies to the dollar.
The US agenda is also clashing with the difficulties it is facing in Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition to that, the perception of America as a global power has receded. Recent studies have also shown that internationally there is a growing anti-US feelings. Moreover, most Americans believe that President George W. Bush is the least popular president in US history.
Amidst these circumstances which are not to the US's interests, the signs of a Cold War are looming in the horizon.
Russia is flexing its muscles with the help of its allies and leftist forces around the world to clip the wings of the US. Despite its rhetoric, the US has not resorted to the use of force against Iran. The US does realise that using force might not solve Iran's nuclear problem. It has also been unable to convince the international community that a military action would be a viable option to end Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.
Iran in designing its nuclear sites has taken into account the potential risk factor from Israel which destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in the early 1980's.
The US and its allies do not have many alternatives, as they have failed to stop the Iranian nuclear programme through diplomatic channels.
However, the US may choose to convince its allies and the Security Council to either impose severe diplomatic and economic sanctions on Iran, or eliminate the Iranian programme through a military air strike. If that fails, then the US may follow a a policy of live and let live in the region!
The US will not succeed in winning an international consensus to impose severely effective sanctions against Iran.
As a result, the military option will remain a mere threat, despite Israeli pressure to do so.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
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