Opinion | Columnists
US has only itself to blame
Last week, US Vice-President Dick Cheney toured the region in what many described as a last ditch attempt to bring Arab allies on board for a possible military attack against Iran.
- By Marwan Kabalan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 May 25, 2007
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Last week, US Vice-President Dick Cheney toured the region in what many described as a last ditch attempt to bring Arab allies on board for a possible military attack against Iran. It is Cheney's third Middle Eastern tour in two years to garner support for US policy towards Iran.
For the past few years - since the invasion of Iraq - the Bush administration has been complaining about Iran's increasing regional influence and its implications for Gulf security and US interests in the Middle East. This influence is, in fact, attributed to two key factors: US policies in the region and Iran's alliance with Syria.
Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, the US has been trying to isolate Iran, aiming at overthrowing the regime or at least change its behaviour.
The eight-year war with Iraq helped pre-empt Iranian efforts to export the revolution into neighbouring states. The war had also helped isolate Iran in the Arab world since it was largely seen as a Sunni-Shiite conflict and an Arab-Persian war.
Lifeline
The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent US-led attack to get Iraq kicked out of Kuwait handed a lifeline for the Iranian regime, allowing it to dilute regional isolation. Following the 1991 war, Iran succeeded in presenting Iraq as the major threat to the Arab Gulf monarchies.
Taking advantage of Iraq's isolation also, Iran's then president Ali Hashemi Rafsajani and his successor Mohammad Khatami, established a strategic security partnership with Saudi Arabia.
Abandoning the idea of exporting its revolution and adopting a more pragmatic approach in dealing with its neighbours had also helped Iran to undermine the dual containment policy - envisaged by Martin Indyk, special assistant to Bill Clinton for Near East and South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, in 1993 against both Iran and Iraq.
Following the September 11 attacks, the neo-conservatives of the Bush administration, with little regard to the regional implications, decided to go not only after the Taliban regime in Afghanistan but also Saddam Hussain's (both are historic enemies of Tehran). Since 1979, Iraq has acted as a bulwark against Iranian influence.
The removal of Saddam Hussain and the subsequent civil conflict in Iraq removed the last hurdle, preventing the infiltration of Iranian influence into the wider Middle East. The political, ethnic and sectarian composition of the new Iraqi leadership has also placed Iran in a position where it could possess huge influence inside Iraq itself.
As for Iran's alliance with Syria, it allowed Tehran to command a regional role that far exceeds its economic and military capabilities. Its weight is being felt throughout the region; from Iraq to Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories.
Tehran's influence is exercised either directly on the borders with Israel or through ideological pressure on moderate Arab states, weakened by the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict and their unpopular alliance with the US.
Ideological influence
Historically, Iran has had ideological influence in the predominantly Shiite Mount Amal in Lebanon. Strong ties with Syria have contributed to bringing Lebanon closer to Tehran. Its efficiency in knitting alliances with parties inimical to Washington in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq, has made Iran's regional policy a model for political pragmatism.
Thanks to Syria's geographic location between Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, Iranian influence stretches today all the way to the Mediterranean.
Despite the immense importance of external factors in increasing Iranian influence, a thorough analysis would signify Iran's persistent efforts to build and maintain a large network of alliances that have allowed it to occupy centre-stage in regional politics.
The alliance with Syria serves as a primary point of reference. The Iranian-Syrian alliance began as purely defensive. Yet, the occupation of Iraq transformed it, giving Iran vital access to most of the region's problems.
For all that America has only itself to blame. It is reaping today what it has sowed in the past few years.
Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
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