Under strain in Afghanistan

French President Nicolas Sarkozy will attend the next Nato summit, to be held in Bucharest, Romania, in the beginning of April. It is seldom that a French president attends a Nato summit. Sarkozy will probably announce the strengthening of the French military presence in Afghanistan, a gesture that will be welcomed by Washington.

The US-led coalition in Afghanistan is under strain. According to a recent report published by the US Atlantic Council, "Nato is not winning in Afghanistan". This is both a pessimistic and understated assessment. One must keep in mind that the number of soldiers sent to fight against the Taliban has been multiplied by four since 2003. There are now 43,000 soldiers from 37 countries on the ground. But this deployment has not prevented the Taliban from controlling large parts of Afghanistan.

President Hamid Karzai vetoed Paddy Ashdown for the role of coordinator for international assistance. He feared that the former High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina would act as a proconsul, undermining his legitimacy. It is true that Ashdown had acted in an authoritarian manner in Bosnia. But it is also true that Afghan authorities are not tough enough when it comes to fighting opium production and trafficking.

Karzai told a German newspaper that he was unsure that sending more troops was the right option. His priority was building strong institutions and strengthening his country's army and police.

Different from Iraq

Even if the military intervention in Afghanistan is different from the Iraq war, the two of them have some similarities. The liberation armies are now seen as occupation armies. Foreign soldiers do not always respect local traditions. On top of that actions such as bombing civilians instead of the Taliban have created resentment against and hatred for foreign troops.

Richard Boucher, who is in charge of Afghanistan for the US State Department, has just admitted before the Senate that "success is not certain". The risk of seeing Afghanistan turning into a failed state is pointed at by many experts. Six years after 9/11, Al Qaida and Osama Bin Laden are alive and well, and based in a large area between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

This is the reason why Robert Gates, the US Secretary of Defence, has asked European countries to send 7,500 additional troops. He has warned that a failure in Afghanistan would be a direct security threat for Europe. Germany is reluctant to increase its troops. Even if Chancellor Angela Merkel presents herself as a strong ally of the US, she has to take into account the opinion of her coalition partners and, most importantly, the public opinion. Neither the Social Democrat Party nor the German people are eager to increase their involvement in a protracted war in Afghanistan.

On the contrary, Sarkozy has pledged to send more troops (1,900 French soldiers are deployed already) and more fighter aircraft.

Off the record, French military leaders are far from enthusiastic. The French chief of staff, General Jean-Louis Georgelin, is said to have stated that Afghanistan is following the Iraqi path and is becoming a quagmire.

The Netherlands and Canada threaten to pull their troops out. During the presidential election campaign, Sarkozy stated that France's military presence in Afghanistan would not last forever, although his declarations may have been influenced by simultaneous negotiations with the Taliban concerning the freeing of French hostages.

Back then, the current minister of foreign affairs even used the term "military occupation" to depict the foreign military presence in Afghanistan. Therefore, many observers thought Sarkozy would have had planned an exit strategy once in charge. The exact opposite - a reinforcement strategy - is underway. Sarkozy probably knows very well the difficulties of the strategic situation. He has chosen what is, in his mind, the lesser of two evils: being trapped in Afghanistan and suffering limited casualties seems less problematic than being pointed out as a weak ally by the White House.

Dr Pascal Boniface is the founder and director of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques). He has published or edited more than 40 books dealing with international relations, nuclear deterrence and disarmament, European security and French international policy.