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There is hope Post-Musharraf
The country has vast resources and potential. It is crying out for an able and consistent leadershi.
- By Tariq Osman Hyder, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:32 August 19, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
To visualise where Pakistan is now heading to, or should be headed to, one needs to analyse the pros and cons of the former president Pervez Musharraf's rule. Whether one likes it or not, Musharraf, at the international level defined what Pakistan stood for. To give him his due, he was an articulate advocate of Pakistan and took great pains in preparing himself to refurbish the image of the country abroad. However, this attention to detail led to micromanaging every aspect of Pakistan's governance.
Musharraf's epitaph could be that he was a man of limited abilities. His greatest failing was his ignorance of this fact, which otherwise would have allowed him to compensate by choosing able advisers.
His original sin - the military coup -was facilitated by the ineptitude of previous governments. Hopefully, the politicians have learnt from that bitter lesson. Certainly, the formation of the coalition between the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) provides some evidence to that effect. As both parties are traditional rivals, the general expectation is the alliance will not last, especially now that Musharraf is gone. But, Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif are both politically savvy. Moreover, as any political instability will cause damage to their parties, they may well surprise us by marching together in the medium term, despite divisive issues such as the restoration of the judges and Musharraf's future.
In foreign relations, Musharraf's score card was mixed, although cumulatively it accelerated public disapproval. On Iraq, he took a stance in not supporting the US at the UN Security Council, and resisted repeated US calls for Pakistani troops to join the coalition forces in Iraq. On the nuclear issue, the West seized on the opportunity to criticise Pakistan, but Musharraf strongly resisted all pressures and supported his nuclear negotiators.
On India and Kashmir, despite the Kargil conflict, Musharraf succeeded in reducing the tension between the two neighbours through a peace process. He correctly assessed that there was no alternative and no post 9/11 international acceptability of an armed insurrection in Indian Kashmir. However, his out of the box proposals on Kashmir, which could only have led to a settlement on Indian terms, perceptually eroded Pakistan's principled support for Kashmiri self determination. Probably, he felt that resolving the Kashmir issue would be his crowning achievement.
His reaction to American demands after 9/11 defined Musharraf in Pakistani eyes. Admittedly, his options were limited, but he surprised the Americans by accepting all their demands. There was no attempt to strike a better bargain. Yes, American economic assistance, backed by its Western allies and the international foreign investments plus sizeable military assistance, poured in. The cost was much higher.
There is a Punjabi proverb which says, "He who has been fed by another, cannot look him in the eye". Irrespective of what Pakistani officials may claim about the manner in which Pakistan used US monetary aid given for military operations to support the coalition in Afghanistan and to fight terrorism, the American response would be "we gave the money and thus we want results".
Musharraf was neither able to reverse the deteriorating law and order situation in the country, nor the growing activities of the militants. The rising unpopularity of the Western coalition's campaign in Afghanistan and the consequent resistance to it fuelled sympathy and support across the border. When Pakistani forces joined hands with the Americans to crackdown on the militants, their actions boomeranged on Pakistan due to the lack of public support for the country's pro-American policy.
Some change
While there may now be some change in Pakistan's tactics on the war on terror to demonstrate that Islamabad is not kowtowing the US, the country's fragile economy may not permit a substantive change. Though terrorism has to be fought, a military campaign against one's own people in the critically underdeveloped tribal areas, similar to foreigners operating in Afghanistan, is not sustainable. No ordinary Pakistani soldier considers a tribesman sympathetic to fellow tribals under attack in Afghanistan an enemy.
The freedom of manoeuvre of any government in Pakistan will depend on its ability to balance the budget to free itself of external assistance. Improving governance, austerity, fiscal discipline, and concentrating on education and public infrastructure, all long ignored by the Musharraf and previous regimes, must be given top priority. It will help to survive mounting public discontent due to rising inflation, food and energy prices.
Pakistan is a country with vast resources and potential. It is crying out for an able and consistent leadership. An assertive civic society, coupled with a vigorous and investigative media, demanding accountability at all levels, provides hope for the country's future. They have now become the dominant characteristic of Pakistan's polity. Political parties, which require to institute democratic election procedures themselves, cannot afford to ignore this new reality. If they do so, it will be at their own peril.
Tariq Osman Hyder is a retired Pakistani diplomat.
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