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The US needs a friend like Saudi Arabia
The American-Saudi split on regional issues has a very immediate effect on the ground in Iraq, where the Saudis have distanced themselves from US policy to try to achieve increased security.
- Image Credit: Illustration: Dwynn Ronald V. Trazo/Gulf News
The vacuum in Middle East diplomacy is frightening as Saudi Arabia's role as the emerging political leader in the region has been undercut by the Bush Administration. The Saudi initiatives have not been picked up by the United States, while some of them are being encouraged to wither away.
This has created a serious absence of momentum, which means that those who are profiting from the increased violence are delighted. It has also generated a new phenomenon of institutional Saudi anger at American disdain for the Saudi efforts, which has also been interpreted as ignoring their position as a country which has been allied to the United States for decades. And at this time the US cannot afford to lose its friends in the region.
There are several cases of the Americans halting Saudi initiatives. Most spectacularly, the plan launched by Saudi King Abdullah in 2002 at the Beirut Arab summit, which offered complete reconciliation with Israel in return for Israel's full withdrawal from the Occupied Territories and the recognition of an independent Palestinian state, was ignored by the Bush Administration.
This plan is widely agreed by all sides to include all the elements that will have to be included in an eventual two-state solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict. But the American refusal to encourage it meant that the Israeli government was able to ignore it.
Quietly accepted
Last month's Arab summit in Riyadh endorsed the Beirut Declaration, but pressure from US Vice-President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has made sure that nothing has been picked up from the summit. After five years the plan has been quietly accepted as the only serious route to negotiations on offer, but Washington will not allow Israel to sit down and discuss it without preconditions on recognition.
Late last year, the Saudis succeeded in brokering the Makkah Agreement that helped form the present national unity government in Palestine, which includes Hamas, but the United States has refused to deal with the democratically elected Hamas government on the grounds that they support the armed struggle.
As a result the situation in Palestine and Israel is increasingly violent and there no political momentum to seek any rapprochement.
A Saudi plan to bring Iran into the regional discussions started well early this year. Ali Larijani, Chairman of Iran's National Security Council who is leading Iran's position on nuclear access, visited Saudi Arabia, paving the way for a visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself.
But what ever passed between the two Gulf powers did not become the start of a widely endorsed regional initiative to resolve the nuclear stand-off, as the Saudis had planned. American doubts over the Saudi ideas did not allow them to endorse any results from the discussions between King Abdullah and Ahmadinejad.
The American-Saudi split on regional issues has very immediate effects on the ground in Iraq, where the Saudis have distanced themselves from the US policy of a major increase in the number of American troops on the ground, to try to achieve the increased security vital for political development.
King Abdullah went out of his way at the Riyadh summit to describe the American presence in Iraq as "an illegitimate foreign occupation". However, Bush is replying on the "surge" of thousands of extra US troops to calm Iraq, so that he can start some kind of exit policy. The tragedy is that the surge is not working, and cannot work without a serious commitment from Iraqis to a political solution. What infuriates the Saudis is that Bush and his administration need the Saudis to help develop the essential regional component of such a political solution.
The increased violence in Iraq is terrifying the whole of the Middle East, which foresees a desperate outcome from the US-led adventure to topple Saddam Hussain. Parts of Iraq look like becoming war zones for the foreseeable future, which will allow the development of more and more armed groups that are more and more willing to use and export violence to seek their ends (which might be political or might even be economic or criminal).
In addition, the United States has been seen by the whole region to fail in its most high profile intervention in the region. After such a failure in an increasingly violent region the United States will need what friends it has. It should not spurn them or their ideas.
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