America did not invent the circus. But it was an American, P. T. Barnum, who made circuses the gigantic spectacles we think of when the word is used today. By the same token, political campaigns in which the powerful manipulate popular opinion are hardly new (re-read Shakespeare's Coriolanus or Julius Caesar if you doubt this). But one can argue that America has brought the art somewhere close to perfection.
Thus do we have the meteoric rise of Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, self-proclaimed "hockey mum" and, perhaps, the next vice-president of the United States.
The conventional wisdom is that John McCain picked her because he needed to do something to shake up the race. It is a truism that candidates who believe themselves to be winning never, ever go for the risky choice.
It is, however, equally true that no politician can win without first locking down his base. Palin accomplished this for McCain. The trick, however, is locking down the base without alienating the 15 per cent or so of centrist voters who determine the outcome of most American elections.
Normally, this is not a problem. Running mates traditionally fade from view after the convention, taking with them whatever inconveniently off-centre views they may have. Palin, however, is a newly-discovered political rock star as well as only the second woman ever placed on a major party ticket. She is likely to command enormous attention all the way to election day and her views on abortion, the economy, global warming and much else are not those normally imputed to that middle 15 per cent of voters.
For Republicans the danger is that familiarity may breed contempt. That translates into an opportunity for Democrats, provided they are smart enough to seize it.
Both parties sense that "change", in some form or other, is the defining theme of this election year. Moreover, many of the people who want "change" are looking for something far broader than an alteration to this or that policy (this is the reality that Hillary Clinton never quite grasped) - instead, they want to change the way politics itself operates.
Barack Obama has risen so far, so quickly because he seems to understand this and summons listeners to a politics that rises above partisanship. In Denver, he sounded this theme by saying that McCain is not a bad person but rather someone mired in the past when he ought to be looking towards the future.
Defining
In contrast, the defining characteristic of Palin's convention speech was its sarcastic, slightly sneering, tone. She accused Obama of lacking any serious legislative accomplishments, belittled his youthful work as a community organiser and implied that city-dwellers are somehow less American than those who live in small towns.
Though the speech was much-praised in the days immediately following its delivery, it is easy to imagine Palin's mocking, contemptuous tone coming to grate on the public's ears in the weeks ahead.
Which begs the question: if the country is allegedly looking for something mould-shattering, something beyond partisan politics why did the Republicans opt to spend so much of their week in the national spotlight sounding gleefully mean-spirited?
The answer to this lies in the tepid applause McCain received throughout his formal acceptance speech. When Obama, in Denver, reached out to Republicans and independents the crowd roared. When McCain, in Minnesota, sought to appeal to Democrats and independents he received only polite applause. Watching on television it was hard to avoid the conclusion that both parties are talking about change, but only one really wants it.
"There's a sucker born every minute," is the most famous quote commonly attributed to circus impresario Barnum, though there is no evidence that he ever actually said it. Shakespeare's Coriolanus rose to power on the strength of popular acclaim, only to fall when the people figured out how much contempt he actually held for them.
McCain himself does not appear mean-spirited or contemptuous, but he has a lot of followers who confuse hurling insults with debating ideas. The question is not simply whether McCain or his party will run the campaign over the next eight weeks. It is which will govern should he, and Palin, win.
Gordon Robison is a journalist and consultant based in Burlington, Vermont. He has lived in and reported on the Middle East for two decades, including assignments in Baghdad for both CNN and Fox News.
