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The Afghanistan quagmire
There will not be a pushover in Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban will take a very long time, sacrifice many lives, require huge quantities of arms, and cost a bundle.
- Joseph A. Kechichian, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 October 22, 2009
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Of course, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) could eventually defeat the Taliban and declare victory, but it is crucial to ask what that triumph would look like. Will the Afghan people, still without a stake in the success of the Hamid Karzai government, surrender or engage both Kabul and the ISAF for their perceived freedom?
Demographic data indicate that the total population of Afghanistan stands at roughly 30 million in 2009, a number that is eerily similar to total figures for both North and South Vietnam in early 1970. Like most Vietnamese at the time, Afghans are relatively poor, for neither society boasted a healthy middle class that could be easily co-opted. Likewise, it is important to note that in Vietnam's case, powerful outside forces, especially the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China, established decisive umbilical cords that supplied the North.
The Taliban have similar patrons in Pakistan and Iran, with powerful constituents in both countries motivated by ideological, political and financial reasons to pursue the military option. There is plenty of confusion on the ground, especially now that the war has spilled over inside Pakistan, which could have devastating consequences for that nuclear power.
Beyond the myriad bombings and shootings that are rocking Waziristan, the weak and unpopular Asif Zardari government in Pakistan does not seem capable of victory, given internal confrontations between civilian and military leaders. How Washington and its Western partners handle the nascent chaos in Pakistan will surely determine whether additional US troops for Afghanistan, perhaps with token British and French soldiers, will make any difference at all.
According to press reports, on-going raucous deliberations at the White House pit two powerful constituents for and against an escalation, with the erudite Vice-President Joseph Biden calling for a significantly scaled-back footprint, in favour of a "counterterrorism" strategy. Military commanders on the other hand are recommending a "counterinsurgency" plan, which would increase the number of troops deployed to hover around 100,000, ostensibly to apply a triumphant Iraq-like "surge." Counterinsurgency proponents insist that the Taliban can be defeated with a major infusion of US combat troops. Moreover, those who favour a full assault on rebels maintain that Kabul must also focus on securing the hapless population by providing essential services, which were neglected for at least the past eight years.
False promises
In the event, Obama 's momentous decision will reveal whether Washington will abandon the Bush Doctrine — best defined as imperial arrogance — or open a new chapter that will recalibrate Washington's leadership mantra around the world, by considering every life valuable. Whatever option is adopted, Afghanistan is gradually sinking in a gargantuan void, which will neither improve living conditions nor restore peace.
Alarmingly, and despite high-level support to Kabul, Western leaders do not seem to have a viable indigenous partner, given President Hamid Karzai's shaky legitimacy and poor record. His most recent electoral shenanigans to secure another presidential term speak to an inherent lack of connection with the interests of the Afghan people.
Repeated promises to train an effective national army and police force have not materialised. Generous financial commitments made by several countries, ostensibly to help improve appalling living conditions, never trickled down. Even the lucrative poppy trade, long a primary source of income for millions of farmers, was carefully channelled to benefit the powerful.
Karzai botched the reconciliation with the Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic faction and major recruitment pool for the Taliban, though many opportunities existed towards such resolutions. Indeed, it would be outright silly to assume that the main concern today lies with the estimated 25,000 fighters that the Taliban boast, when Kabul squandered several chances to gain the political upper hand.
Given the lack of imagination, and beyond insurgents, prospects for agreements between various Afghan groups are thus dim, and all the ISAF troops in the world will not bring peace to the country as long as the Afghan people are divided and poorly governed.
Notwithstanding intra-tribal disputes, it is important to note that the Taliban are not the only Afghans who believe in national resistance, and any certainty that they can be crushed by either carrots or sticks overlooks Afghan history. This opposition, like its predecessors, is a nationally organised movement capable of long-term warfare. It is supported by millions of destitute people, and one cannot but take them seriously, for it seems they know why they are fighting — even if Kabul does not.
In its ninth year, the War for Afghanistan should remind everyone that a Vietnam-style escalation to prop up a corrupt regime is not a good idea, for Kabul does not seem to have the political will to prevail. It behooves outsiders to show patience and allow successive Afghan governments to earn their legitimacies through gradual transparency.
Though today's 80 million Vietnamese are still mostly impoverished, the country is free, for none of the hurried solutions imposed to justify the unjustifiable ensured success. Afghans may yet end up trusting their leaders, but one wonders when, at what price and under what circumstances.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
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