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Syria cautious about EU agreement
There is a hot debate on whether the Association Agreement will benefit the country or not
- By Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 October 20, 2009
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- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
The Syrian daily Al Watan ran a front page story on Sunday saying that Syria will not be signing the much anticipated partnership agreement with Europe on October 26. The reason, the newspaper added, was for the Syrians to "study" the agreement in detail, having had it sitting on a shelf since 2004. This deal, which many hope will boost Syrian industry, has created a storm within the mercantile and business communities of Syria it first surfaced in October 2004. Some are anxious that it will open the doors of Europe far and wide for Syrian products, where there is consumer market of 600 million.
Syria currently exports a variety of products to the EU, including cotton, olive oil, textiles, cumin, while importing clothes, foodstuff, cars, and machinery. Certain products, once exceeding a particular limit, will be allowed to enter the EU market tax-free, and the quota of Syrian olive oil, for example, will rise from 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes. These products would have to undergo a major quality face-lift, in order to compete in Europe. This is precisely why many Syrian businessmen are very worried, claiming that during the transition period, so many industries will go out of business — unable to penetrate the European market, and unable to survive on the Syrian one, in light of European competition.
Syria's decision to wait on the Agreement with Europe puts an end to snowballing speculation in the Syrian and Arab press, on whether Syria will accept the invitation of the Swedish presidency of the EU, to sign the Association Agreement (AA) next week in Luxemburg.
Study required
Speaking to reporters two weeks ago, Foreign Minister Walid Al Mua'alem reminded: "The accord was frozen by the EU in 2004!" The Syrians were very annoyed when under pressure from the Bush White House, the EU back then decided to put off the AA with Syria — in complete disregard to what the Syrians wanted.
Mua'alem added, "The European decision not to sign surprised us and consequently, the Syrian government wants to study all the details of the deal [before signing]." He added, "If the government concludes its review during the Swedish presidency [of the EU, which ends on December 31] we will sign the accord. If not, we will sign it during the Spanish presidency [which begins on January 1]."
Apart from the economic impact of such an agreement, the AA would signal a new chapter in Syrian-EU relations, which hit rock bottom during the era of French President Jacques Chirac, under the urging of George W. Bush. Many Europeans reasoned, once Chirac was out of office, that the French president had personified his quarrel with Syria, because of his strong relations with the Hariri family in Lebanon. Boycotting Syria clearly did not work, neither politically or economically.
On the political front such a strategy only strengthened Syria's relations with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, denying the Europeans any leverage with these groups, who clearly listened to Syria. Economically, the Syrians headed East; towards countries that were more than willing to fill in the shoes of Europe, like Malaysia, China, India and Russia.
Today, the tables have turned and the Syrians are no longer as enthusiastic to sign the agreement as they were in 2005 — because of the newfound relationship with France, other heavyweights in the EU, and the United States. In 2004-2005, the agreement would have helped Syria wrestle off the isolation imposed on it by the Bush White House. Today, the benefits of the AA do not outweigh the difficulties for Syria and that is why the Syrians are cautious not to jump into an agreement, until seeing exactly how beneficial — or harmful — it would be for the Syrian economy and whether it is more in Syria's benefit to sign, or in that of the EU.
Clearly from what is being read in local newspapers, the Syrians are not saying that they will not sign the EU agreement, nor are they saying that they will indeed be signing — preferring to stand in middle water — until properly revisiting the agreement.
Syria's sudden brake is due to a variety of factors, prime being, economic changes in Syria and around the world since the deal was first signed in 2004. The dynamics of the world economy — and the Syrian one — have dramatically changed over the past five years, making it necessary to re-visit the AA.
No pressure
The EU is not the same as well, with two new countries having joined since then, being Romania and Bulgaria. There is no pressure on either party, either economic or political, to pull through with an Association Agreement. Also, the Syrians are clearly upset at a last minute invitation to sign the agreement in Luxemburg. They were not consulted with the signing date, but rather, it was conveyed to them — with no prior notice — after a five-year unilateral freeze by the Europeans.
Freezing the agreement under US pressure was insulting, and reactivating it at Europe's own will once Bush left the White House is seemingly, equally insulting. The Syrians feel uncomfortable with having to accommodate Europe's sporadic schedule, arguing that once this agreement is signed, there is no turning back, either for Syria or the EU. The agreement's economic clauses (Articles 8-130) go into effect 61 days after the signing, making the EU date, October 26, too soon for an agreement that needs a second thought — to say the least.
Sami Moubayed is Editor-in-Chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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