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Student activism alone will not fuel change
There is a general feeling in Iran today that things cannot go on as they are and that, somewhere along the line, something has got to give.
- By Amir Taheri, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:38 December 9, 2008
- Image Credit: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
A war zone". This is how the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) described Tehran University campus on Monday after a hit-and-run battle between youths and security forces lasting several hours.
The IRNA blames "paramilitary groups" and "militias masquerading as students" for the clashes that ended with dozens of injuries and arrests.
The disturbances started on Saturday as universities marked the annual "Students' Day" with gatherings on the campus. Within minutes, however, it had become clear that this year's ceremonies were designed as a series of protests against the leadership in Tehran. Posters bearing such slogans as "Down with the Despots" and "We Want Democracy", indicated that this time the students would not be satisfied with a formal ceremony with a few official speeches as has been the case for years.
The authorities had hoped to transform this year's "Students' Day" into a nationwide show of support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's populist administration. The Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei was scheduled to address the students in what would have been an unprecedented occasion. Ahmadinejad was scheduled to visit the Science and Technology University. Across the nation, more than two dozen top officials, including commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were enlisted to address campus audiences in some 50 universities.
However, just hours before the big show was to begin, both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad received advice that they should stay away from the campuses. The security forces could not ensure the safety of the two leaders on the campuses.
As news of the cancellations spread, some student activists saw this as a victory for their anti-regime campaign.
"The dictators are not showing their faces," a spokesman for the Office for Consolidating Unity, one of the many groups organising the student protest, claimed.
On most campuses, the news was greeted with shouts of "Democracy Now!"
It is not quite clear who wanted to do what but the authorities decided to take no risks. They shipped thousands of troops to cordon off the campuses in Tehran and at least 12 other major cities.
Well, is this the start of something big? Could it develop into a nationwide pro-democracy movement that could upset the regime's calculations before the presidential elections next June? Is Iran, as some experts suggest, entering a pre-revolutionary phase that could threaten the very existence of the Khomeinist regime?
There is no doubt that many groups within the establishment and outside it see the coming presidential campaign as an opportunity either to impose a reshuffle of the leadership or open the way for regime change. On their own, the students are in no position to provide the energy needed for meaningful change.
Although Khomeinism no longer enjoys the support base it once did among students, it remains a significant presence, often acting as arbiter between other forces with rival ideologies.
The dominant faction among Khomeinist students still believes in its version of the revolution and hopes to save it by dislodging Ahmadinejad. These Khomeinist students are desperately looking for someone from within the establishment who might be able to challenge Ahmadinejad next June. They also hope that the next president will curtail the powers of the "Supreme Guide," helping Iran to develop into "a normal republic" rather than a theocracy. Beyond that, students are divided into numerous groups, ranging from old-style Marxists to monarcho-nationalists and secularist democrats.
Student activists may have succeeded in scaring Khamenei and Ahmadinejad away from the campuses. But, they are unlikely to achieve any significant change on their own.
The importance of the current student movement lies elsewhere. It is now clear that Khomeinism has lost most of its appeal to young Iranians. "The idea of creating an ideal 'Islamic' state that would be the model for humanity may have sounded seductive three decades ago," says Ali Qavimi, a student activist. "Today, it sounds more like a sour joke."
Closest aides
The so-called "reformists" still hope to salvage something of the wreck of Khomeinism by amending the constitution. Ebrahim Yazdi, once one of Khomeini's closest aides and now the leader of a loyal opposition group, believes that the elimination of the position of the "Supreme Guide" would open the way for the creation of a "viable system" in Iran.
"The concept of a 'Supreme Guide' was a bad idea from the start," he says.
Yazdi, along with a number of other Khomeinist insiders, are trying to persuade former President Mohammad Khatami to enter the presidential race against Ahmadinejad.
"Khatami is the only one whose candidacy cannot be easily vetoed by the authorities," Yazdi says. "He is also the only one with the stature to propose the changes needed to make the system workable."
The student movement reflects these tensions inside the regime and in the broader Iranian society. There is a general feeling in Iran today that things cannot go on as they are and that, somewhere along the line, something has got to give. The "loyal opposition" hopes to encourage peaceful change, a hope shared by perhaps a majority of the students. However, with every day that passes, more and more Iranians, including many students, may find it hard to ignore those who preach violent regime change.
Amir Taheri is an Iranian writer based in Europe.
Your comments
In many ways these protests are reflecting the extreme frustration felt by the youths all over the world. It is no small feat that this year an unprecedented number of people between the ages of 18 and 30 voted in the US presidential election, thus clearly pushing for a change. Today, young professionals across India are asking their leaders tough questions. In Iran, Egypt and Middle Eastern countries, they are also doing so. This generation is ready for a better tomorrow. As you said, these protests in universities might not be big enough to carry significant weight, but it shows a clear shift in ideologies, which could prove beneficial for Iran's future. For today's student protesters are tomorrow's voters and leaders.
Ambika
Mumbai,India
Posted: December 10, 2008, 09:31
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