Opinions | Columnists
Saudis poised to counter Iran
The two have found themselves locked in conflict over every Middle East problem.
- By Marwan Al Kabalan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 December 15, 2006
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Having come under huge domestic and external pressure to change its policy in Iraq, the Bush administration is already in the process of weighing options to lay out a new strategy to save what can be saved in Iraq.
The new policy was due to come out before the end of this year. But, the New York Times reported that US President George W. Bush would delay presenting any new strategy for Iraq until early next year.
The main reason for the delay, it is argued, is the division within the Bush administration over what policy line should be adopted. Internal debates are indeed key to the understanding of US policymaking.
Yet it is completely misleading to try to limit the formulation of US foreign policy on Iraq to mere domestic factors. Here regional politics in the Middle East play as important a role as any other factor.
There are in fact two key options the Bush administration is deliberating right now for a new strategy in Iraq. The first is what the Washington Post has dubbed the 80 per cent solution.
According to the paper Vice- President Dick Cheney is pushing for the argument that the US should abandon efforts to win over Iraq's Sunni minority and settle for good ties to Kurds and Shiites.
Cheney's advisers believe that national reconciliation in Iraq is now highly unlikely and that the US attempts to reach out to Sunnis may have already jeopardised relations with Iraq's Shiites, who make up about 60 per cent of the population.
The second option is advocated by the State Department and backed by the US ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad. They are lobbying for propping up moderate Sunnis and encouraging them to stand by the government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki.
Advocates of this approach fear that backing Shiites against Sunnis would mean virtually handing Iraq over to Iran on a silver platter. This policy, if adopted, they argue, would also antagonise the Sunni US allies in region, key among them Saudi Arabia and would thereby further complicate policy in the Middle East.
Diplomacy
Saudi Arabia has in recent weeks abandoned its quiet diplomacy and went on the offensive to try to stop Iran from dominating Iraq. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, troubled by the possibility that the US administration might choose to back the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, asked for an urgent meeting with Cheney.
During the two-hour meeting in Riyadh, King Abdullah made it clear to Cheney that he cannot stand idly watching Iraqi Sunnis being subjected to ethnic cleansing.
It is also believed that Riyadh has lobbied in Washington to arrange for a meeting between Bush and Iraqi Vice-President Tariq Al Hashemi, an influential moderate Sunni with close ties to Saudi Arabia.
The meeting was initially planned for next month but Riyadh, it is reported, requested an earlier visit. The visit of Al Hashemi to Washington came days only after a meeting between Bush and the pro-Iran leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Abdul Aziz Al Hakim.
On November 29, the managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project in Riyadh, Nawaf Obaid, wrote an article in the Washington Post in which he warned that a precipitous withdrawal of US troops from Iraq will result in an immediate and massive Saudi military intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from "butchering Iraqi Sunnis".
The Saudi government, Obaid added, is under huge domestic pressure to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and to counter Iran's growing influence.
Having heard this position loud and clear, the Bush administration is very unlikely to ignore Saudi concerns over Iran's rising influence in the region.
In fact, the Saudi-Iranian conflict has left a profound mark on the politics of the Middle East in recent months. Iran and Saudi Arabia have found themselves locked in the middle of a conflict over almost every Middle Eastern problem Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine.
The US government cannot afford to ignore this conflict and will have to take it into account when it comes to deciding on the new strategy for Iraq in the next few weeks.
Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
Share this article
Popular in Opinions
-
Opinions
Speak Your Mind: World hunger
Who is responsible for world hunger? Are there any solution?
Opinion Editor's choice
-
Parochialism versus India
The idea of India gets defeated if people are governed by domicile considerations
-
Between crime and insanity
Major Hassan's actions debase the universal parlance of the very faith that he professed to embrace so ardently
-
Its time for Karzai to show his mettle
He may have fallen out of favour, but for now there are no other leadership options
