Opinions | Columnists
Reading between the lines
The Lisbon treaty, voted 'no' in a referendum last June, could be back from the dead.
- By Quentin Peel, Financial Times
- Published: 00:41 December 2, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration by Guillermo Munro/Gulf News
Hopes are stirring in the European Union that the Lisbon reform treaty, declared dead by its opponents after the Irish voted No in a referendum last June, may yet be revived by the end of next year.
Last week the Czech constitutional court declared that the treaty was not in conflict with Czech law, clearing the way for a parliamentary vote on ratification; and an Irish parliamentary sub-committee said there was no legal obstacle to holding a second referendum.
It is much easier said than done. Brian Cowen, the Irish taoiseach (prime minister), is facing a disastrous slump in his personal and political popularity. His ruling Fianna Fáil party has seen its support drop to 26 per cent in recent weeks - its lowest ever score.
The financial crisis has hit Ireland harder than almost any other EU member state, with a collapse in property prices, economic growth and tax revenues. It could scarcely be a worse moment to ask the electorate to think again.
Yet there is a sense of urgency, too. If the Lisbon treaty is not ratified by all EU members before the end of 2009, it is likely to fall foul of politics in the UK, where a general election is due by 2010.
The Conservative party will campaign on the promise of a UK referendum on Lisbon, in the confident expectation that it would be rejected. But neither Labour nor Conservatives wants the EU to be back as a big issue, because it splits both parties.
Cowen has promised to give his 26 EU partners an answer on his tactics in the next 10 days, before their Brussels summit on December 11. The outline of a deal is already apparent.
He wants agreement that every state will be allowed to keep a member of the European Commission, instead of shrinking the size of the EU executive to a smaller number. He also wants declarations on issues such as Irish neutrality, taxation and abortion, saying that Irish law will not be affected by the treaty.
A deal on the size of the commission looks likely, although it is only popular with the smaller members. Big members such as Germany, France and the UK say a 27-member commission is inefficient, expensive, and that "national" commissioners end up as national lobbyists.
Streamlined
Under the present Nice treaty arrangements, the commission should be streamlined from next year. But if Lisbon is ratified, that will be delayed until 2014. The 27 can decide unanimously to delay the date further - if the Irish vote Yes.
As for declarations, the question is whether they will be enough to persuade Irish voters there has been any real change in the treaty. "No" campaigners argue that calling a second referendum at all is an insult to popular democracy.
An alternative is for Ireland to copy Denmark and seek formal opt-outs from EU policies, such as European security and defence policy.
For example, Dublin could opt out of the European Defence Agency, designed to promote European defence capabilities and armaments cooperation. The Irish army would not like it, but it might reassure some voters concerned that European defence policies endanger Irish neutrality.
The most recent Irish opinion poll on the Lisbon treaty, in the Irish Times, says 43 per cent would vote Yes, against 39 per cent No, and 18 per cent undecided. That is far too narrow a margin for Cowen to be confident.
On the plus side for him, the financial crisis works both ways: it has shattered public confidence in his government, but it seems to have made Irish voters scared about excluding themselves from the comfort of membership of the EU and the eurozone.
The credit crunch may have destroyed Cowen's domestic popularity, but it could just save his European reputation.
Share this article
Popular in Opinions
-
Opinions
Speak Your Mind: Tough love
What ways do you use to discipline your child?
Opinion Editor's choice
-
Obama must get tough
If any progress is to be achieved, the US president needs to stand up to Netanyahu
-
Trust is the issue with Iran
Resolution is unlikely because of the lack of faith between the 5+1 Group and Tehran
-
Building a knowledge society
Arab Knowledge Report examines the current state of Arab knowledge
