Opinion | Columnists
Poll outcome crucial in outlining future
The expected and demanded change in Iraq is the only route to stability in the country
- By Mohammad Akef Jamal Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 March 15, 2010
- The president of the republic shall ask the candidate of the largest parliamentary bloc to put together a cabinet in 15 days after the president of the republic is elected.
- The prime minister shall name his cabinet ministers within a maximum of 30 days after being tasked.
- The president of the republic shall ask another candidate to put together a government in 15 days if the first prime ministerial candidate fails in putting together a government.
It is premature to talk about the nature of the Iraqi government after the elections and its ability to approach big issues that hinder the country's rebuilding process.
A few of these problems entail reviewing the constitution and sweeping away the numerous mines therein, so as to enable more of Iraq's citizens, both inside and outside the country, to help with the building process.
The results of the elections are not out completely and the rules of the game in the shifting political sands do not rule out today's competitors who were Sunday's allies — going back to their old tent in order to continue the country's political stagnation.
The outcome of the Iraqi elections is crucial in outlining the future of Iraq as a country. The outcome is also exceptionally important on a number of other levels.
Regionally, the expected and demanded change in Iraq is the only route towards the country's stability; hence the map of new balances in the region will be drawn, calming the fears of Arab countries regarding the growing Iranian role.
Internationally, the election results are also important because Iraq's stability will allow the US to proceed with its partial troops pullout schedule.
This will also enhance US President Barack Obama's position in the eyes of the US public.
For the European Union (EU) and others around the world, a stable Iraq will be the best place for investments, as the country has been reduced to rubble and needs to be rebuilt from scratch.
Voter turnout was 62 per cent which gives a certain legitimacy to the election process.
Throughout the elections, it was evident that a number of competing blocs and contenders were not given equal chances to promote their campaigns. The money flow from inside Iraq and abroad allowed some political alliances and individuals to appear extensively on Iraqi and Arab media outlets, while others were deprived of this facility.
Apart from that, large numbers of Iraqis living abroad were not allowed to vote on the pretext of insufficient ID documents. This procedure adopted by the Independent High Electoral Commission served the conservative groups, as it set up hurdles in the path of those calling for change.
The elections were also accompanied by bombings that claimed the lives of dozens of residents and resulted in many Iraqis refusing to venture out of their homes to participate in the voting process.
Election day also witnessed a strong presence by Iraq's neighbouring countries in an attempt to support change or stand against it.
In all cases, the election atmosphere was far from perfect. However, in general, all these suspicions cannot be taken to the level of seriously succeeding in affecting the basic features of the polls.
So what are the chances remaining for change?
The initial voting results do not point to change on the scale wished for by Iraqis. The slackness of voters weakened the chances for those calling for change and made their mission more complicated and difficult.
The Iraqi Alliance, the leader and strongest voice for change, is in great competition with the State of Law bloc, which is closer to the conservative direction.
Both will need to team up with other major alliances to gain a majority that will allow them to take over. No doubt both will also have to make concessions to lure other allies. Both alliances have the chance to lead the political process over the next four years, but this leadership will be conditioned by the restraints set by the choice of allies.
The Iraqi Constitution stipulates that the head of the bloc with the highest number of members elected to parliament will be tasked with the premiership for a limited duration.
The first three items of the Constitution's article No 76 in the third clause stipulate the following:
The ability for change demands enjoying a fair parliamentary majority to approach big and important national issues. These may include amending the constitution and sweeping away clauses that represent hurdles and obstacles against national reconciliation, rebuilding Iraq and other issues that intensify trenches between Iraq's basic components.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
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