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Opportunity and crisis in the Mideast
An international conference, along the lines of the Madrid Conference in 1991, could provide the stage for universal recognition of such a vision for the region
- By Salman Shaikh, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:43 August 26, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf New
In the Middle East, crisis and opportunity are often two sides of the same coin. Today, the question is, are we heading towards war or peace? If we are to give peace a chance, the current "band-aid" diplomacy to deal with intractable, simmering and connected conflicts needs more imaginative solutions. In particular, the status quo option has become untenable as two trains - Iran's right to nuclear technology and Israel's existential fears of a nuclear armed Iran - head towards each other with increasing speed. We urgently need a realistic and effective diplomatic strategy that can deliver a new strategic vision - a comprehensive settlement based on co-operative alliances and common values in the region.
Any new diplomatic efforts must be sensitive to a changed Middle East. The balance of power in the region has markedly shifted over the past decade. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Gulf where the states of a confident "new Middle East" have developed their own strategies to deal with the problems of the "historic Middle East".
There is perhaps a more hopeful scenario, especially if interests converge. Talking for now seems to have replaced fighting as all actors - state and non-state - see the limits of military force. Israel and the Palestinians have continued to talk seriously even if an agreement is still some way away; and Israel and Syria continue to talk, albeit through Turkey. The Syrian and Lebanese presidents have also agreed to exchange diplomatic missions and perhaps embark on a new more co-operative chapter between the two countries than the recent past.
Most importantly, Bill Burns, one of the US's most respected diplomats, joined in July his P5+1 (Britain, France, US, China, Russia and Germany) colleagues for "talks before talks" with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Post Geneva, however, the bottom line for the US, Israel and Britain and its European partners remains the same: "No unchecked Iranian uranium enrichment or else". Iran and the most powerful man in the country, its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini, do not seem to be budging.
Existing international mechanisms are not sufficient to keep pace with events on the ground. Any recent positive developments will not hold for long unless we ensure that future diplomatic efforts are imaginative and innovative.
The Middle East Quartet's efforts at supporting Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts have been too ineffective for too long. Moreover, these mechanisms do not include other Arab or Muslim countries, such as the UAE, Qatar and Turkey, which have demonstrated their ability to help bridge important differences. Emerging energy-hungry powers such as China and India also need to be bought into the tent.
Diplomatic alliances
Now is the time for international co-operation and strong diplomatic alliances. Such cooperation will have a greater chance of success if built on an overarching new vision for the Middle East based on a set of common agreed values. Amid the uncertain situation on the ground, it should still be possible to get all parties to commit to what is needed. This could include securing commitments to a strictly verifiable nuclear non-proliferation regime and agreements ensuring the right to nuclear technology for energy needs only; a negotiated solution, based on relevant UN resolutions, to end all occupation of Arab lands; security guarantees for all as part of a regional security framework; an end to both terrorism and support for those groups who use terror; energy security; human and economic development; and normalisation efforts leading to the establishment of full diplomatic ties.
An international conference, along the lines of the Madrid Conference in 1991, could provide the stage for universal recognition of such a vision for the region. Furthermore, such a conference should boost not hinder efforts on specific peace tracks, rather like the Madrid conference helped build confidence for the secret Oslo talks. Unlike Madrid, however, this conference need not be a one-time event but rather develop into a semi-permanent venue for talking and building trust amongst suspicious actors.
Nobody wants war, but history as well as the recent past, tell us that in the absence of such diplomacy, it may be easier to go to war in this blighted region than make peace.
Salman Shaikh is a Middle East analyst based in Doha, Qatar.
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