Before the controversial decision by the Turkish parliament, which authorised sending ground forces to Syria and Iraq to fight Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al Abadi emphasised that Iraq does not need any foreign or Arab forces on its territory.
Iran’s immediate response to Turkey’s decision was one of reservation. Tehran warned of the risks, stating that deploying ground troops to Syria and Iraq will further complicate matters and will not benefit the war against Daesh. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously pointed out that the war against Daesh necessitated bringing down the Syrian regime — an ally of Iran. Turkey’s reluctant stand seems ambiguous. The country made the timid decision to join the international coalition when Daesh was on the brink of capturing Kobani (Ain Al Arab) and seizing control of the tomb of Sulaiman Shah, grandfather of Osman I, who founded the Ottoman Empire, which is being guarded by a garrison of 30 Turkish troops. The tomb is 25 kilometres away from the Turkish border and is the only location that remains under Turkish sovereignty despite being outside its border, as part of a 1921 treaty signed between Turkey and France. The fate of this nearby city and tomb is a source of concern for the Turkish government, particularly after it was warned by imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan that any peace talks between Ankara and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to settle the Kurdish dispute would fail if the Kobani falls to Daesh. This is an indication that the only country that can convey a message of goodwill and prevent a massacre against the Kurds is Turkey.
At the operational level, the war against Daesh has not been successful so far in liberating any large city occupied by the group. General John Allen, who is leading the international coalition against Daesh, said that the liberation of Mosul will probably take at least a year, at a time when doubts abound over the efficiency of air strikes in eradicating Daesh. Despite some successes achieved — like the liberation of the Rabea border crossing, thanks to air support from coalition forces, and the town of Al Dhuluya, southeast of Tikrit — Daesh was able to make other advances in Anbar province and is moving towards the Syrian city of Kobani. The organisation continues with its military initiatives, opening up new fronts at a time or place of its choosing. This is because Daesh units are highly mobile.
Perhaps air strikes alone may decide this war, culminating in the exhaustion of one of the sides. However, guerrilla warfare by Daesh may inflict massive damage. The air raids, after all, only slightly limited the organisation’s activities. The scale of these air raids is not enough and the timespan between each air raid allows Daesh to regroup and continue with its activities. There are slight logistical difficulties involved in the air raids, which are launched from bases and aircraft carriers that are located quite far from the scene of action. This requires aircraft to refuel while in the air.
Averting these logistical obstacles by using air bases in Iraq is important and this requires troops to be stationed on the ground to ensure that the operation receives the necessary logistical services. These include securing the area around the bases. Despite new countries joining the coalition and dispatching fighter jets, it is expected that the dire need for land forces during the second phase of this war will lead to relinquishing the policy of banning foreign ground forces in Iraq. There is a dire need for highly trained ground troops that can defeat this organisation and hold liberated ground. Iraq, after all, is part of the international coalition led by the US, which is the country that will have the final say on determining the course of the battle against Daesh.
In fact, preparations are underway as 1,600 US Special Task Force troops arrived in Iraq under the guise of being “advisors”. There are plans afoot by the Pentagon to send more troops. Meanwhile, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced that his country will deploy 600 troops to Iraq, along with 10 fighter jets to join the coalition forces in fighting Daesh. There are concerns that the efforts of the international coalition to eliminate Daesh may turn out to be like other missions that do not serve the interests of some regional regimes.
These doubts are not far from the truth, especially since the US is also currently embroiled in a new cold war against Russia — a war in which the Middle East is a key area. One of the coalition’s unannounced goals may be to avoid the mistake made by the US when it adopted a negative position regarding the ongoing civil war in Syria three years ago. By doing so, the US allowed Syria to become an incubator for terrorist groups, most notably Daesh.
Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.