Opinion | Columnists
No agreement yet, but some progress
There will be no binding pact signed in Copenhagen, but non-governmental groups are making headway
- by Stuart Reigeluth, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 December 6, 2009
- Image Credit: Guillermo Munro, Gulf News
To the disappointment of many, there will be no binding agreement on climate change at the UN conference in Copenhagen this week. But some progress is being made.
A few background pointers may help clarify where we stand today: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was a treaty that emanated from the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 to address greenhouse gas emissions and growing holes in the ozone. Then Senator Al Gore came out with Earth in the Balance that same summer, warning of the dire effects of climate change.
Following the Earth Summit, members to the UNFCCC grew and now comprise 192 countries or, in other words, most of the world. In 1995, the first ‘Conference of the Parties' (Cop 1) took place in Berlin, Germany. Cop 15 is therefore not an abbreviation for Copenhagen, but rather an acronym for the latest in a long slew of international conferences that happens to be in Denmark's capital this year.
In 1997, the landmark Kyoto Protocol was adopted at Cop 3 in Japan. Most developed nations signed the legally binding agreement to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by an average of six to eight per cent below 1990 levels. The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by 184 countries, but still does not include the United States. Neither Bill Clinton nor George W. Bush sent the protocol to Congress for ratification. In 2001, Bush openly rejected the protocol. Needless to say, without restrictions on the US, as former world emitter No 1, the reduction levels projected by Kyoto will clearly not be met by 2012.
Share the burden
Now, since 2007, China has surpassed the US as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. And this is where power politics come into play. Rising economic nations like India, China and Brazil are being asked by ‘developed' countries to kindly reduce their pollution by the same amount as the industrialised states; when the ‘developing' nations are doing their best, according to them, to achieve higher living standards and more widespread employment while confronted with intractable population growth.
Related Links
With a billion-plus population, China will keep on growing; and the US is not going to just keep sliding. During President Barack Obama's tour of East Asia in November, world leaders announced in Jakarta, Indonesia, that there would be no binding agreement signed at Cop 15, which meant that the foreseen 20 per cent gas reduction goal for 2020 was side-stepped.
The US then proposed to reduce emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020, and by 83 per cent by 2050. China also pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 40-45 per cent by 2020. But this was expected, according to US analysts at the reputed Brookings Institution, and in their eyes, not enough of a gesture to the rest of the world.
Washington's disappointment with China's reticence to curb projected growth may have been dispelled by Beijing's acquiescence to exert more pressure on Iran over the nuclear proliferation issue. Signing a strategic missile pact with Russia is also seen as earning a point for Obama in global geopolitics. And having Russia and China, both permanent members of the Security Council, will facilitate passing economic sanctions on Iran.
There is definitely an argument for ‘developing' countries that regard the West's industrial revolution as a main cause of the current climate conundrum. Indeed, why can these countries not develop and flourish now as the West once did? Then again, it's sort of like smoking: no one thought it was bad for you 100, 50, 20 years ago.
A most desirable scenario would now be for the most developed economies to assist emerging markets by providing the necessary technology at lower costs to help them progress at the same speed while polluting less. But does the West really want to see the "rise of the rest", as referred to by Fareed Zakaria in The Post-American World (1998).
Caught in this rising-declining economic battle, there is some room to be positive. The 3C (Combat Climate Change) launched a ‘score-card' meant to track the progress of the climate negotiations before, during and after Copenhagen. Sixty-six of the world's largest companies have signed 3C, under the motto "nothing ends in Copenhagen". In a world where multinationals are becoming increasingly powerful, this may be a step in the right direction to fight global warming.
On the civil society level, the Global Observatory (GO) is "communicating climate change" by answering the questions "what is going on?" and "why is this so important?" As a strategic media hub for news, analysis and opinion, GO leaders and experts provide news, analysis and opinion, with content for broadcast, print and online media. GO is filling an important gap between the citizen and politician to raise awareness about the reality of climate change.
Join us this week in Copenhagen to see if these efforts can bring about some serious commitments at Cop 15.
Stuart Reigeluth is editor of www.revolve-magazine.com
More from Columnists
More from Opinions
Opinion Editor's choice
-
Threat of German amnesia
By Joschka Fischer, Special to Gulf News
Rarely has the country been as isolated as it is now. Hardly anyone understands its dogmatic austerity policy, which goes against all experience
-
Moral implication of America's security mindset
By Gordon Robison, Special to Gulf News
After a decade in which torture became official government policy, America’s moral standing when it comes to looking at other governments’ human rights failings is much-diminished
-
Europe's salvation lies in euro's demise
By Bruce Anderson
A return to national currencies is the only hope, but it won’t be easy or cost-free
Your turn
