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Musharraf's growing dilemma
His own unpopularity and an independent judiciary may dent his future plans.
- By Farhan Bokhari, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:04 September 15, 2007
Pakistan's mounting political uncertainty and worsening security conditions have severely narrowed General Pervez Musharraf's options. Locked in a corner in the midst of a growing battle with a variety of players, ranging from the opposition parties to militant groups, the General is in a fix.
His future prospects have become more complicated with the presence of an increasingly independent judiciary, which now more than ever will not back controversial actions by Pakistan's rulers.
Doomsday scenarios being painted for the future of Pakistan range from predictions for the imposition of a state of emergency to martial law. Whichever of these actions are contemplated by the military ruler, his political future will not change.
Musharraf's dilemma mainly stems from his growing unpopularity in Pakistan. A poll released recently put his popularity behind that of Osama Bin Laden, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.
Members of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) who support Musharraf must reconcile themselves with his eagerness for striking a power-sharing deal with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto, who has now decided to return from exile on October 18.
Despite assurances by Musharraf to the contrary, many members of the PML-Q have concluded that their political space will inevitably shrink in the future as they are forced to share power with the PPP.
The PML-Q's other challenge is a historical one. It has failed to transform itself into a popular political party during the five years it has been in office. Besides, many of its members were once loyal to Sharif and only left him after the coup of 1999 brought Musharraf to power.
Members of the PML-Q hardly have a history of loyalty to a single leader. But given Pakistan's mounting uncertainty, why should the PML-Q remain loyal to Musharraf at a time when his political ship seems to be sinking? There are no convincing answers to that compelling question.
Defiance
Once the direction of the political wind changes conclusively, many PML-Q politicians may even return to Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), especially as his political fortunes ascend given his defiance of Pakistan's ruling establishment. It looks like political certainty is indeed going to be elusive for Musharraf.
What should be the right choice for the General?
There are many who are convinced that the General's good days in Pakistan's power structure are over. For the sake of argument, even if he survives politically, his reputation has been so badly tarnished that he is unlikely to ever emerge as a respected ruler.
Historically, people like General Musharraf have never known when to call it quits. In the past week, Pakistani newspapers have reported his intention to nominate his wife, Sehba Musharraf, as his covering candidate when elections for the presidency take place next month.
The idea behind doing so seems to be to position Mrs Musharraf to become the president of Pakistan in the event that the General's re-election is blocked by the supreme court.
Break
The court is to hear a petition challenging a public servant - in this case Musharraf as chief of the army staff - seeking political office. Under the Pakistani constitution, a public servant must take a break for at least two years after retirement before seeking political office.
The bottom line is that Musharraf's power is waning. Eight years since he seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, the General has little to show for it. He has failed to put Pakistan on the path of reforms that would change the outlook for most, if not all, its people.
Instead, the General who once promised to reverse Pakistan's past legacy has ended up playing the political games which are not unfamiliar to the country's tragic political history, more than half of which has been under the military's rule.
Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.
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