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Moving towards democracy
One of ANP's campaign promises was that the geographical name given by the British to their province would be replaced by a name reflecting its Pushtun ethnicity
- By Tanvir Ahmad Khan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:29 March 14, 2008
The two major parties, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League( PML-N) that won nearly two-thirds of the National Assembly seats between them in the elections held on February 18 have made notable headway in forming an effective coalition. It could give them shared power at the federal level as well as in all the four provinces of Pakistan.
They have also included in their coalition the Pushtun Awami Nationalist Party, which defeated religious parties in the strategically sensitive North Western Frontier Province (NWFP). One of ANP's campaign promises was that the geographical name given by the British to their province would be replaced by a name reflecting its Pushtun ethnicity.
The breakthrough came in the form of a joint declaration made by PPP and PML(N) on March 8 in Murree, near Islamabad. By publicly undertaking to bring about the restoration of Judges sacked by General Pervez Musharraf on November 3, 2007 within 30 days the two parties reconciled their differing perspectives on this contentious issue. PML (N) had virtually made this restoration a pre-condition of joining the coalition.
The 18 days that the two parties took to reach consensus were marked by misgivings amongst the people who were visibly impatient to see them get on with the work of forming the new government. There were rumours that Musharraf was averse to Nawaz Sharif, whom he had ousted in his coup of October 12, 1999 and sent into a long exile, joining the coalition. There were persistent reports of president's camp promoting an alternative coalition that would include the remnants of PML (Q), the party of Musharraf loyalists who lost heavily in the elections. Such efforts were unrealistic as PML (N) was only 20 seats behind the PPP in the National Assembly and had an unassailable majority in the assembly of the most populous province of the Punjab.
Widespread allegations
The atmosphere remained charged also because of widespread allegations that, led by the United States, the western friends of Pakistan were trying to keep PML (N) out of power because of their suspicion that its leader, Sharif, has Islamic affiliations. Henry Kissinger's piece on Pakistani election in the International Herald Tribune was universally seen as substantiating allegations of excessive American interference. He had said that "any attempt to manipulate the political process that we have urged is likely to backfire" and that "a wise policy must recognise that the internal structure of Pakistani politics is essentially out of the control of American decision-making". Paradoxically, the perceived US meddling strengthened Sharif's position and hardened opposition to Musharraf as the US manoeuvres were seen to pre-empt an overdue review of Pakistan's deep involvement in the "war" against terrorism.
Musharraf's initial promise that he was joining this war to help stabilise Afghanistan after the US invasion of 2001 has been overtaken by events as the anti-American militants have turned the Pakistani soil into the main battle ground. More than 1,500 Pakistanis died in 2007 in terrorist attacks. In barely two and a half months of 2008 there have been 71 incidents of similar violence including 15 suicide bombings. Setbacks in this domain have been an important factor in the present anti-Musharraf feeling in the country.
There are really only two opinions about Musharraf amongst the people: a demand for him to step down or readiness to let him continue strictly as a constitutional head of state. There is no credible evidence that he is willing to accept either alternative. This is why there is apprehension that a confrontation between him and the Parliament may be unavoidable and that it could come as early as the National Assembly passing the promised resolution seeking restoration of deposed judges. All the president's men insist that any pro-judges move would require a two-thirds vote. The politicians, on the other hand, counter it by saying that the declaration of emergency and the subsequent amendment of the Constitution by Musharraf remain unlawful unless his actions are approved by the parliament with a similar two-thirds affirmative support.
Great diversity
Pakistan's crisis has not yet been resolved. Underlying it is a 60-year-old tussle between those who believe that Pakistan's multi-ethnic federation characterised by great diversity in development and modernisation cannot do without a Westminster-style parliamentary system and the proponents of a strong and intrusive presidency. Musharraf has pushed presidential powers to those of the monarchs of a distant past as he has laid the written Constitution aside more than once.
The Murree accord between Asif Zardari and Sharif should also be seen as mobilisation of democratic forces to counter possible threats to the new parliament including moves to dissolve it or severely constrain its functioning. Following the PPP-PML (N) declaration, Musharraf has convened the National Assembly to convene on March 17 and begin its extremely difficult task of resolving a cluster of highly tangled constitutional and legal issues.
The last thing that the country can afford is a war between the president and the parliament but so far Musharraf is keeping the onus of averting it on the politicians. After eight years of absolute rule he is reluctant to accept any serious dilution of his powers and his resolve to be in the driver's seat is fortified by his belief that the states fighting the war in Afghanistan continue to support his bid. How Pakistan reconciles the unambiguous verdict of the people in favour of a parliamentary system with the prime minister as the chief executive of the state as in India with the legacy of the last nine years will have profound implications for Pakistan and the region.
Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former ambassador and former foreign secretary of Pakistan.
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