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Listen to Berri
Nabih Berri, the strongman of Lebanese politics, announced that he would be making a "feast gift" during the Eid holidays.
- By Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 November 1, 2006
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Nabih Berri, the strongman of Lebanese politics, announced that he would be making a "feast gift" during the Eid holidays.
His "gift" was announced on October 25, when he called for renewed dialogue among all of Lebanon's political parties and religious sects that was aimed at creating a cabinet of national unity. Meaning, he wanted to change Fouad Siniora or at least change the composition of his cabinet to give more power to Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and its leader Michel Aoun.
On October 27, Berri's call was echoed by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This new and proposed cabinet has been the demand of Berri's allies, Nasrallah and Aoun.
Since the Israeli War on Lebanon ended in August 2006, Nasrallah and Aoun have loudly been calling for the downfall of the Siniora cabinet.
Berri's proposed talks, a follow-up to earlier ones held this year, were scheduled to begin on October 30. They were delayed because important players were absent, including former president Ameen Gemayel, parliamentary leader Sa'ad Hariri, and Druze leader Walid Junblatt. Although in town, Nasrallah also could not attend for security reasons. Because of this, the talks were postponed until November 6.
Is it possible that the trips of Gemayel to Kurdistan, Sa'ad Hariri's to Saudi Arabia and Junblatt's to the US, were last minute "unforeseen circumstances" to avoid attending Berri's talks? This is highly unlikely in fact impossible. Or were they pre-planned, with Berri knowing perfectly well, when calling for talks on October 30 that neither Hariri and Junblatt nor Gemayel can attend?
Did he propose a date that nobody could commit to, not to bring the Lebanese leaders together, but to send a strong message that he the long standing heavyweight in Shiite politics, who has excellent relations with both Syria and Iran is also calling for a downfall of Siniora cabinet?
He made himself clear in the Beirut daily An Nahhar, however, pointing out that: "I have strong reservations against toppling the government before reaching a consensus on the next cabinet in order to avoid a political vacuum."
Initiative
The daily An Nahhar said that Berri's initiative was a result of detailed talks "away from the media" held on October 24 between the speaker and Siniora. Berri's support for a new government is devastating to the March 14 Coalition. It can be the final blow to bring down Siniora. For their part, not wishing to cross the speaker, the March 14 Coalition welcomed Berri's proposal, saying however, that its agenda is too limited and should include debate on the weapons of Hezbollah and what remains of the mandate of Lahoud. The March 14 group met with Berri and demanded changes over the weekend. He refused.
Coinciding with his initiative, and highlighting the polarisation of Lebanese politics, the Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir announced on October 29: "What we are hearing nowadays is very worrisome.
Lebanese society is divided and there are those who are working towards returning the country to the age of tutelage." Clearly, Sfeir was referring to Berri and Nasrallah, the two long-standing allies of Damascus.
If the Hezbollah, along with Berri and Aoun, take to the streets, they can create havoc in Lebanon. They are numerically more powerful than the March 14 Coalition. This would lead to violent confrontations between the security personnel, run by acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat (from the Hariri bloc). If security ends the demonstrations with force, it would create an even deeper grudge at the Lebanese government and it would be accused of using the security to clamp down on protesters something frowned upon in a democratic state such as Lebanon. If the security fails to end the demonstrations, it would be accused of facilitating chaos and vandalism.
Another option that the Berri-Nasrallah-Aoun coalition can use is get Hezbollah's two ministers to resign from the Siniora cabinet. They would be followed by the three ministers of Berri's Amal movement and Yaacoub Al Sarraf, the Minister of Environment who is an ally of Lahoud.
In all, six ministers, five being Shiite, likely would resign, forcing Siniora to dissolve his government.
Defy orders
No Shiite heavyweight would join and dare defy the orders of Nasrallah or Berri and because of the number of parliamentary seats Amal and Hezbollah hold in parliament, no cabinet can or will be solved without them. Meaning, it would be all over for the Siniora cabinet because it cannot survive without Amal or Hezbollah.
A Hezbollah deputy, Mohammad Raad, hinted at this plan by telling the Kuwaiti daily Al Raid Al Aam that the party's presence in the cabinet was "temporary". All of this is a strong warning that the days to come will not be smooth in Beirut. The world and the Lebanese street was waiting to listen to Berri.
Being the balancing power in Lebanon since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri and the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005, Berri has now taken sides.
And when Berri takes sides, things change in Lebanon.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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