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Letting Iran off the hook
The American intelligence reprieve should afford Arabs the opportunity to engage Tehran.
- By Osama Al Sharif, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 01:03 December 16, 2007
- Image Credit: Illustration by Luis VazquezGulf News
What just happened? Out of the blue, Iran was let off the hook by none other than its accuser's spy arm; 16 US intelligence agencies to be precise. To say that such bombshell exoneration was nothing less than a slap in the face of the Bush administration is an understatement.
Tongue-in-cheek notwithstanding, what was building into a major political and military tsunami has suddenly and unexpectedly been demoted to a harmless storm in a tea cup!
Iran has every reason to celebrate. So does Mohammad Al Baradei's International Atomic Energy Agency, which for months has downplayed the alleged threat of Tehran's nuclear programme.
While Iran was pleading its innocence, the Bush administration, along with some of its close European allies, was busy building up a case against the Iranian programme. Time was running out for a diplomatic solution and the clouds of war were gathering quickly.
But now we can breathe easily because the pundits of the Washington inner circle agree: The Bush team has been trumped. Barring an unexpected provocation in the Gulf, the US no longer has an excuse to launch a military strike against its bitter enemy.
To get an alibi from such a surprise star witness is something that even the most experienced analysts did not expect. But it happened and some observers likened it to a coup inside the Bush house.
The affair raises yet more questions on the integrity of the current administration, at a time when its policies in Iraq and Afghanistan are being questioned by presidential hopefuls and indeed by a majority of Americans.
With the Dick Cheney war mongers on the defensive, it is safe to assume that the chances of new hostilities erupting in the final few months of the Bush presidency have greatly diminished.
That's good news to the people of the region, but more importantly it is an assuring sign that global efforts can now be focused on containing the damage already caused by an impetuous and callous America.
Alternatives
It is now up to the IAEA to ensure that Iran's efforts to develop a civilian nuclear energy programme remain within that scope. The outcome of the Iran affair will help other countries that now seek alternatives to hydrocarbons such as Jordan, Egypt and the UAE.
The Iranian case must remain transparent and accessible, and the IAEA must get the international support that it needs to stay in control.
On the other hand, now that Tehran has been acquitted of charges of seeking to build a military nuclear programme, its neighbours, among others, should pursue efforts to engage its leadership in serious dialogue.
The GCC's historic invitation to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to attend the Doha summit recently was a step in the right direction. Iran is an important regional player whose policies need to be clarified especially with regard to the future of Iraq and relations with the Gulf region.
It would be prudent on the part of the Arab League to initiate dialogue with the Iranian leadership. The US intelligence reprieve should afford the Arabs the opportunity to engage Tehran and make sure that positions are clarified on Palestine, Lebanon, the Gulf and Iraq.
Furthermore, the Arabs must underline the fact that while the American influence in the region will not recede soon, regional stability and security require that important players see eye to eye and stay in touch on critical issues.
Israel has suffered a blow as well as a result of the US intelligence acquittal. Along with Washington's neo-cons, the Israelis would have loved to see an escalation in crisis that could lead to a military strike against Iranian nuclear assets.
Of course there is always the possibility that the collapse of the hardliners' case might do some good. A triumphant Ahmadinejad noticeably sounded milder as he called for dialogue with Washington and dropped anti-US rhetoric a week after the US intelligence report was made public.
While a divided Bush team ponders its agenda for Iran, it is unlikely that the two enemies will soon embrace. Having engaged in sabre-rattling for decades, Washington and Tehran will continue to pursue a mixture of diplomacy and brinkmanship to serve domestic interests.
And while Ahmadinejad represents a certain flank of fire-brand politicians, there are others in his country who promote a different approach on many issues. With his approval ratings slipping fast over the failure of his economic policies, the Iranian president may not last in office much longer.
It is not far-fetched that in the post Bush-post Ahmadinejad era, Washington and Tehran will find a way to patch up their ties and end decades of hostility.
That is one reason why the Arabs should not get sucked into the particulars of the US-Iran tug of war. It is up to enlightened Arab leaders, as well as Iranians, to recognise the need to launch constructive dialogue between the two sides.
The temporary pause in tension with Tehran should provide an incentive to bring the Iranians to the table and press for concord over issues that have so far soured relations and created mutual suspicions.
America for once can be sidelined while people of the region talk about their common destiny.
Osama Al Sharif is a Jordanian journalist based in Amman.
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