Let us make peace with our planet

We know now that our civilisation, our species and even our planet may not be immortal. This is not the first ecological crisis that humanity has lived through, to be sure; but there can be no doubt it is the first that is so wide - indeed, world-wide - in scope. What are we doing to safeguard the future of the Earth and its biosphere? What are the challenges to be met? What solutions can we offer? These were the questions under discussion in the latest session of our 21st Century Dialogues organised by Jérôme Bindé at the Unesco Headquarters on the theme "What future for the human species? What prospects for the planet?", with contributions from some 15 leading experts.

First and foremost, climate change and global warming: by the end of the century this planet could be hotter by an amount between 1.5°C and 5.8°C. Such a warming of the climate threatens many parts of the world and is liable to provoke further disasters from the proliferation of tropical storms to the drowning of whole island states or coastal regions.

Next comes desertification, already affecting a third of the world's land. At the end of the 20th century almost one billion people in 110 countries were threatened by encroaching deserts: the figure might well double by 2050, when two billion could be affected.

Deforestation is continuing, too, though primary and tropical forests are home to the greater part of the world's biodiversity, and we know they help to combat climate change as well as slowing soil erosion.

The whole biosphere is threatened by pollution: pollution of air and water, oceans and soils, chemical pollution and invisible pollution. In Asia alone, the World Bank estimates the cost in human life of atmospheric pollution at 1.56 million deaths a year.

There is a world water crisis that cannot be ignored. Two billion people will face water shortages in 2025 - three billion, in all likelihood, by 2050.

Lastly, biodiversity is endangered: species are becoming extinct a hundred times faster than the mean natural rate, and 50 per cent of all species could be gone by 2100. Yet biodiversity is essential to the cycle of life, to human health and to the security of our food supply.

This situation brings a serious risk of war and other conflicts and demands a global response. Sustainable development concerns us all: it is a necessary condition for any effective fight against poverty, not least because it is the poorest who will suffer the worst of the droughts and other natural disasters to come.

Today, though, we understand that our war on nature is a world war. That is the meaning of the Stern Report on the economic consequences of climate change. If we do not take immediate action to combat global warming, we can expect to forgo between 5 per cent and 20 per cent of world GDP by 2150: the bill comes to some 5,500 billion euros. Who says sustainable development costs too much? "Business as usual" is what threatens to ruin us! Javier Pérez de Cuéllar began our 21st Century Dialogues with a clear warning: "How can we know, yet be unable - or unwilling - to act?".

There are difficult questions that we have to answer now, with courage and lucidity. It can no longer be argued that "sustainability" and "development" are conflicting goals, nor that tackling poverty is incompatible with conserving ecosystems. We are going to have to fight on every front at once.

We shall also have to invent new and far more wisely restrained modes of growth and consumption. As Haroldo Mattos de Lemos emphasised in the 21st Century Dialogues, "we humans are no longer living off nature's interest, but off its capital". The idea is not, of course, to stop growth entirely, but, as Mustafa Tolba suggested, to bring about the quickest possible shift in its nature towards less material forms of wealth, reducing our consumption of raw materials in every area of production. There must also be far greater awareness of the devastating potential of global warming; and that awareness must result in compliance with the measures laid down in the Kyoto protocol.

It would also be useful to promote a right to clean drinking water, laying a proper foundation for the ethical governance of water so that it becomes possible both to control demand and to manage it better, as well as improving water quality through careful use, proper treatment and recycling.

The call for us, today, to put an end to the war on nature is a call for an unprecedented solidarity with future generations. Perhaps, in order to achieve this, humanity needs to make a new pact, a "Natural Contract" of co-development with the planet, and an armistice with nature.

Koichiro Matsuura is the director-general of Unesco.