Kabul is not far from Pakistan

Not since the 1980s have Islamabad and Kabul's national interests been so intertwined and interdependent. Besides the traditional power game between Pakistan and India through proxies in Afghanistan today, the Al Qaida-led militancy is an uncontrollable force of destruction that is increasingly reluctant to do the bidding for one country over the other.

Al Qaida wants full control of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The days of compromise and half-hearted measures to incorporate levels of Al Qaida ideology through Islamist political parties in Islamabad and Kabul are over. This unrelenting attitude of the militants have made many in Islamabad rethink their long-held strategy of offsetting Indian control in Afghanistan by favouring various Taliban-like groups.

India is still a real threat for Pakistan. Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, is a centrist leaning India supporter. The Untied States is the stabiliser, stepping in to deter crisis escalation between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In this context it is no surprise that New Delhi and Kabul would accuse Pakistan's intelligence apparatus of abetting - or worse orchestrating - the recent terrorist attack on the Indian consulate in Kabul. There is no hard evidence of Pakistani government's involvement in the bombing, but militants in Pakistan are willing and capable of such attacks. Such acts make many supporters of Taliban-like groups in Pakistan's intelligence apparatus wary of replications because what happens in Kabul does not stay in Kabul.

Strategic chaos

Al Qaida is no longer a symmetric, rigidly structured corporation waiting for its board of directors, which includes intelligence agents, for approval. It has successfully built a strong and sophisticated base of operations in the region by implementing what I call the doctrine of strategic chaos. Al Qaida and loosely connected groups such as the Tarik-e-Taliban-Pakistan operate with little or no central authority, no rigidly defined strategies, and through splinter groups.

In addition to a surge of recruits from Pakistan and Afghanistan, hundreds are arriving from Southeast Asia, Northern Africa and Central Asia to join the jihad. Iraq is no longer the number one destination for inflicting maximum casualties against the United States and its allies.

The bombing of the Indian consulate seems to be the handiwork of Al Qaida or one of its affiliates. Without local support they would have failed. Al Qaida's Achilles heel is support from local denizens. Instead of offsetting Indian sway in Kabul by once again shaking the hornet's nest of Al Qaida/Taliban, Pakistani intelligence should focus on dismantling this terrorist organisation. Offsetting Indian influence in Kabul can be accomplished by Pakistani economic aid, technocratic support, and better military and trade inter-agency coordination between the two countries.

There is a clear indication that Kabul prefers Delhi not because of close cultural bonds. Afghans are attracted to India's security, economic stability and willingness to invest heavily in socio-economic infrastructure through a vast network of embassies, consulates, business consulting firms and NGOs.

Islamabad should actively interdict terrorists in its northern tribal areas and beyond with the help of Kabul. If there are still those in the Pakistani intelligence that are under the illusion that they can control Al Qaida and its affiliates against Indian influence in Kabul then they are grossly mistaken. Positive Pakistani influence in the shape of socio-economic aid and better diplomatic ties will be the best sustainable counterweight to India's sway in Kabul.

Haider Ali Hussain Mullick is a Research Fellow at Spearhead Research, a security-studies think tank in Lahore, Pakistan.

must say an excellent article on the subject, something for the Pakistani government and security establishment to learn from.
Hameed
Helsinki,Finland
Posted: July 14, 2008, 02:15