Opinion | Columnists
Israel seeks to sideline US estimate on Iran
But much remains to be done to circumscribe the effects of US intelligence community 's report on Tehran's nuclear programme
- By Marwan Kabalan Special to Gulf News
- Published: 01:24 March 7, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Last Monday, the UN Security Council adopted a new resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for refusing to comply with calls to cease enriching uranium. The resolution authorises inspections of cargo to and from Iran that is suspected of carrying prohibited equipment, tightens the monitoring of Iranian financial institutions and extends travel bans and asset freezes against persons and companies involved in the nuclear programme. The new measure also bans all trade and supply of so-called dual-use items, materials and technologies that can be adapted for military as well as civilian purposes.
The new resolution raised suspicions among analysts that the Bush administration might be trying to sideline the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), issued by the US intelligence community last December and exonerated Iran from seeking nuclear weapons. The NIE has markedly inhibited the efforts of the hawks of the Bush administration to further isolate Iran or even strike it militarily. Israel was particularly angry at the findings of the NIE.
According to one policy paper presented last January at the eighth Herzliya conference, the most prestigious policy forum in Israel, an Israeli expert argued that the slant of the NIE report impaired the efforts of diplomacy in the UN, demolished the alliance created recently at the Middle East peace meeting in Annapolis, reduced the perceived urgency of a possible attack on Iran, and finally, it gave the Gulf states more of an incentive to choose between acquiring their own nuclear weapons or in appeasing Iran.
By hook or by crook
For Israel, according to the same policy paper, Iran must be absolutely prevented - by hook or by crook - from obtaining a nuclear weapon. To that end, Israeli officials have been in a state of alert since the publication of the NIE report. They toured most of the western capitals over the past three months to repair the damage to their efforts to cripple Iran's endeavours to acquire nuclear technology. The new UN resolution against Iran must have been seen by Israel as an important step to bring the Iranian nuclear programme back to the top of the world's agenda. Dr Mohammad Al Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also been harshly criticised by Israel for not being tough enough on Iran.
Indeed, Iran's defiant approach vis-Ã -vis the UN Security Council has helped Israel garner international support to indict Tehran. Immediately after the UN resolution was passed, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hussaini stated that the new sanctions against his country would "have no impact on the resolve and determination of the Iranian nation and government to fulfil its legitimate rights in continuing its peaceful nuclear activities". The Bush administration exploited this behaviour to further condemn Iran. "Tehran's response meant the Security Council had taken appropriate action", Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to the United Nations, stated. That was translated into a new resolution before the IAEA board that highlights Tehran's nuclear defiance. Despite that the resolution was scrapped because of Russian and Chinese opposition, it meant that the US has decided to go to the end with its efforts to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
For Israel, much remains to be done to circumscribe the effects of the NIE. It has yet to produce tangible evidence that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. It needs to convince the US public that Iran constitutes a major threat to US national security and strategic interests.
It needs to persuade the new US administration to do the dirty job if the incumbent administration could not do it for it. Until that is achieved, Israel has to face three possible scenarios, according to the Herzliya paper: the first is to continue coercive diplomacy into 2009, witness new elections in US and Iran and see how things are going to develop. The second is that Iran enriches but incurs scientific miscalculations and creates a faulty product. The third scenario would be that Iran surprises the world with already developed nuclear weapons.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in Media and International Relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Damascus, Syria.
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