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Is this Musharraf's perestroika?
The Pakistan army's moral authority to influence events in its favour stands diminished. Washington's power brokers are said to be re-examining their options.
- By Neena Gopal, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:34 September 1, 2007
- Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf .
- Image Credit:
As former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto tries to salvage an honourable return home amid frantic attempts by her political opponents to stall her political resurrection, the crisis set off by another former prime minister's return from exile this week - without such a deal - is expected to propel the looming civilian-military confrontation to the fore. But while the world focuses on the unseemly squabble for the crumbs of state between the many bit players crowding the stage - fearful it could precipitate a domino effect across the region - analysts at the premier think-tank Stratfor, believe the internal upheaval could parallel the fall from grace not just of the country's beleagured President General Pervez Musharraf but that of the Pakistan military as a whole.
For the first time in Pakistan's 60-year history - an anniversary marked by a robust economic growth rate but undermined by political unrest - the army's hold on civilian as well as judicial institutions is fast waning. Musharraf's primary weakness stems from his need to continue to play the role of Mr Nice Guy, while trying to navigate his way through the legal and constitutional minefield even as questions are raised by his opponents about his eligibility to stand for president. That and his re-election as president for another five- year term from the present assemblies is likely to come up for hearing by an independent judiciary this week.
A judgement to the contrary could jeopardise his pact with his main support base, Punjab's urban elites headed by Chaudhry Shujaat - inheritor of General Zia's acolyte Chaudhry Zahoor Elahi's mantle - who have baulked at the idea of letting Bhutto in through the back door.
They are insisting that the only legally acceptable way out of the corner that Musharraf has painted himself into is not to give discredited politicians like Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif re-entry or shed his uniform, but to dissolve the assemblies.
Buying time
This would put the presidential and parliamentary elections in abeyance and buy time for the military leader until he places his hand-picked nominee as successor head of the armed forces before orchestrating a carefully controlled election as he did in 2002. Unless, that is, the judiciary decides to restore the assemblies and bring matters to a head.
The other complication could stem from the dwindling support to the Chaudhrys from their own rank and file, and by association, support for the president's re-election. The Chaudhrys may have no plans to abandon Musharraf but the "electables" in the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) could as easily abandon the army and the Chaudhrys and switch horses to join bete noire Sharif if they believe he is the winning horse.
The other shaky political leg Musharraf is leaning on is that of the mercurial Bhutto. The opposition leader whose powerful demagoguery has the potential to rouse the masses has not yet won the assurances that she has sought for herself - dropping corruption cases, lifting the bar on a third term as premier, ensuring a level playing field during elections and scrapping the constitutional amendment that allows presidents to sack governments. This makes it all the more difficult for her to agree to back a be-ribboned, be-medalled General Musharraf for president rather than the "Mr Musharraf" she envisioned by her side.
Clearly, the army's moral authority to influence events in its favour stands severely diminished. Washington's power brokers are said to be already re-examining their options and have sent out feelers to the hard-nosed Sharif who has no intention of allowing himself to be publicly seen as being dictated to by the US or UK. Both UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband and the US ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad are reported to have been at Bhutto's elbow through her negotiations with Musharraf's strategists. But in the unfolding drama where even Pakistan's long-term ally Saudi Arabia could be called in to stop Sharif's triumphant return home after attempts by rising Lebanese star Sa'ad Hariri failed to halt the looming confrontation, South Asia's most prominent Islamic state has clearly arrived at a crossroads.
Looking back at Musharraf's eight-year rule there's little question his liberal pro-west policies mirror that of Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika. The political, social and economic restructuring of the Soviet Union that brought unexpected freedoms are markedly similar to Musharraf's "guided democracy". But as the Soviet armies rumbled out of Afghanistan and the Berlin wall came down marking the Soviet Union's retreat, it was Gorbachev's perestroika that helped dismantle the powerful Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist totalitarian state.
Similarly, "the trend is running against the military" and "Pakistan might be moving into the hands of civilians ... where the military, not the civilian politicians has to contend with limitations imposed by the judiciary," says Stratfor. Much depends on whether Musharraf will grab the initiative back from the warring politicians and what kind of role the US will continue to play to shore up its preferred leader while examining the need to woo the Sharif-led Islamists. But there's no denying that in today's Pakistan, it's Musharraf's perestroika that irrevocably changed the rules of the game.
Neena Gopal is an analyst on Asia.
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