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Is Syria's eastward drift viable?
Damascus should not expect a lot from Russia and China. The days of the Cold War are gone and bipolarity is unlikely to emerge anytime soon in the international system.
- By Marwan Al Kabalan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 June 2, 2006
After three years of sustained Western pressure that almost shocked the regime, Syria seems to have decided to head eastward. Instead of London, Paris and Washington; Beijing, Moscow and, indeed, Tehran have become favourite destinations for top Syrian officials.
Last week, Syria's foreign minister, Walid Al Mualem, paid what the Syrian news agency described as an "extremely important visit" to follow up on the "successful talks of President Bashar Al Assad with Chinese leaders in 2004". Three senior Syrian delegations have also visited Moscow in recent weeks to help improve ties between the two countries.
Syria, one must say, has not chosen to take the old Silk Route on its own accord but was forced to do so after Western gates were closed in its face. Eager to punish Syria for its anti-war stance in the UN Security Council and for its support to the Iraqi resistance after the invasion, the US imposed a set of political and economic sanctions on the country.
Following the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, France joined the US in its effort to destabilise the regime in Damascus. Syria was subject to a barrage of UN Security Council resolutions that almost put it in total isolation.
The EU froze the association agreement initiated in October 2004 after six years of painful negotiations. Except for US-based Marathon Petroleum Co., most Western oil companies have either been discouraged to invest in Syria's vital oil sector or sold out their assets in Syria's oil industry and left the country.
In the past couple of years ConocoPhilips and Devon Energy of Oklahoma City have both left Syria. In January, Petro-Canada sold its 37 per cent stake in an oil and gas field to the China National Petroleum Corporation and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.
Replaying the old game
By leaning eastward, Syria believes that it can replay the alignment game of the Cold War. In 1954, Syria and Egypt were denied access to advanced Western weaponry. The two Arab countries were, in fact, punished for refusing to join the Baghdad Pact, a Western regional security scheme designed to prevent the infiltration of Communism into the Middle East.
In response, Syria and later Egypt signed a small arms deal with Czechoslovakia, breaking the Western monopoly on arms supplies to the Middle East. This small deal put Syria firmly in the Soviet camp and granted it the security it sought until the end of the Cold War. The question now is: can Syria replay history?
Syria has indeed reaped some benefits from repairing its ties with Russia, dwindled throughout the 1990s as a result of US-Syrian rapprochement. Last year, Russia, during an Al Assad visit, agreed to write off 73 per cent $9.8 billion of Syria's net debts, quite an achievement for Syria's weak economy.
China, on the other hand, seems to be willing to help Syria develop its oil industry and compensate for Western technology. But beyond that Syria should not expect more from the two veto-holding powers in the UN Security Council. The days of the Cold War are gone and bipolarity is unlikely to emerge anytime soon in the international system.
In fact, Syria must have learnt a lot from the experiences of the past couple of years. During its confrontation with the US and France over Lebanon, Syria looked to Russia and China for protection in the UN Security Council, but was rejected.
In addition, Syria has repeatedly called upon Russia to assume a greater role in the region, but Moscow was clearly reluctant to give the impression that this invitation would involve challenging the US hegemony in the Middle East.
China, on the other hand, is not ready yet for a global role and despite its hunger for oil supplies, it is unlikely to sacrifice the largest world's market for its manufacturers the US for a few thousand barrels of Syrian oil.
Still, Syria knows very well that China cannot compensate for the advanced Western technology required to seek what is left of its oil and gas reserves which is very inaccessible. Syria must be aware of all that and, hence, while it walks eastward, its eye is on the West, hoping that it might blink.
Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
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