Opinion | Columnists
Is Algeria immune to winds of change?
The army appears flexible and people do not seem ready to go once more through the experience of the civil war
- By Marwan Kabalan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 February 24, 2012
- Image Credit: Dana A. Shams ©Gulf News
Amongst all the Arab countries of North Africa which have been hit by the wind of change, Algeria seems so far unaffected. In Tunisia, the army facilitated the removal of former president Zine Al Abidine Bin Ali, paving the way for the emergence of the first democratic government in the modern history of the country.
Similarly, in Egypt, the military establishment pressured former president Hosni Mubarak to step down, leading a transitional period that — despite major flaws — is likely to result in a more representative government. In Libya, things took different course, more unfortunate though.
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was only removed when Nato intervened militarily in support of the revolution. Indeed, the human and material cost of removing Gaddafi was huge; yet, not removing him would have cost Libya much more.
Needless to say that Libya will face tremendous challenges in the coming years — the social, political and economic legacy of the worst regime the Arab world has ever seen — but it will eventually overcome these difficulties and emerge as a more democratic and prosperous nation in North Africa.
Further west, the monarchy in Morocco was quick to adapt to the changes which took place in neighbouring countries. It moved pre-emptively to accommodate rather than confront the winds of change. King Mohammad VI amended the constitution and allowed the first free parliamentarian elections, bringing to power the Islamist opposition.
By doing so the king has smartly chosen to be part of the process of change. Had he decided to resist popular demands for more representative government, he could have ended up losing the throne and the country. Morocco is now moving slowly but steadily towards a constitutional form of monarchy and that seems to be pleasing everybody.
Amidst these dramatic events, which engulfed Arab North Africa from Egypt to Morocco, many expected that the winds of change will knock at the door of Algeria. So far that did not happen. Although the government of President Abdul Aziz Bouteflika promised free and fair legislative elections scheduled for next May and pledged to allow foreign NGOs to monitor them, many remain sceptical about whether the army would allow the Islamist opposition to rule should it win.
Many here refer to the unfortunate experience of the late 1980s and early 1990s when under popular pressure for democratic change, the one party ruling system led by the National Liberation Front (FLN) adopted more liberal policies. Following bloody clashes between peaceful protesters and police forces, a constitution was drawn up authorising the establishment of political parties and a free press.
Municipal and parliamentary elections were also scheduled. Shortly after the constitution was proclaimed, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) was established and in June 1990 it achieved its first victory in municipal elections wining more than half of Algeria’s municipalities including the capital, Algiers.
In the general elections of December 26, 1991, the municipal scenario was repeated and out of 430 seats in parliament, FIS won 188 with the prospect of taking two thirds in the second round scheduled for January 16, 1992.
Things seemed to have gone wrong. The army, the real holder of power, had agreed to free elections because it was believed that providing some room for a loyal opposition to challenge the government would silence domestic opposition, ease outside criticism, but not undermine the regime and the foundations of the secular state. Accordingly, the army could not accept the new realities established by the democratic process.
In January 11, 1992, the elections were cancelled, FIS’s leaders and hundreds of followers were arrested, offices were shut down, newly-elected municipal officials were removed and, in March 1992, FIS was officially dissolved. Repressive policies drove the moderates to join the radicals and FIS decided to resort to the bullet to reclaim its lost victory.
The Islamic Salvation Army (AIS), the military wing of FIS, was established and militancy broke out. Violence escalated dramatically with the establishment of a stricter Islamist faction that was not only independent from FIS but also antagonistic: the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). The GIA included thousands of returning ‘Afghans’ who were skilled in guerrilla tactics.
Algeria’s bloody civil war lasted for over seven years, resulting in the killing of more than 150,000 people. Given the shift in the policies of the western powers, particularly France and the US which have become more tolerant to Islamic rule in the Arab world, the Algerian army might this time accept a victory by the Islamists in the upcoming legislative elections.
But even if the army decided otherwise, ordinary Algerians do not seem ready to go once more through the horrible experience of the civil war. This explains why the winds of change have not so far knocked at the door of Algeria. The army might be also feeding this public fear to prevent the Islamists from coming to power.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is the Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at the University of Kalamoon, Damascus, Syria.
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