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Iraq sees diplomatic surge
Huge rush of Arab nations to build bridges with Baghdad is political realism
- By Ahmad Mustafa, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:03 October 19, 2008
The current rush of Arab diplomacy towards Iraq looks unprecedented since the invasion and occupation of the country in 2003. Yet, the Americans have been pressing Arab countries, for years now, to provide a regional legitimacy to ruling regime in Iraq. This time it is really different and worth attention, both in the context of regional Arab strategy - if there's any actually - and the outgoing American administrations' efforts to finalise a long-term security deal with Iraq.
It was not only American-friendly Arab moderates who responded to such pressures before, but even Syria - in a way to avoid isolation, cooperated with Iraqis to stop insurgents crossing its borders into Iraq. There were also some failed Arab efforts to negotiate reconciliation between Iraqi factions - mainly Sunni and Shiite ones represented in many political groups - and it is not known if the failure can be attributed to the Americans, Iraqis or regional influential powers like Iran.
Conclusion
The conclusion was that Arab political approach was not fruitful, and the American has to live with escalating violence marring the image they wanted to create of "New Iraq". That's why the American military surge - sending some more thousands of troops to the country in bloodbath - last year was inevitable.
Despite all positive commentary, very few doubt that the American dream in Iraq turned nightmare. The declared goal of making Iraq an example of change for the region failed already, and the country became instead an example of how forced change lead to uncontrollable chaos.
Now, the Americans want to get out of this mess while guaranteeing a formidable permanent military presence there through the security deal with Iraq.
Many factions within Iraq oppose this deal, and of course Iran is against it while Turkey might be reluctant to oppose or fully endorse it.
Here comes the moderate Arab bastion surrounding Iraq that is most likely neutral towards that military presence, as most of the countries of the region already host American military presence of some sort anyway.
The apparent reason behind the recent Arab diplomatic rush towards Iraq would be justified as political realism, with the Arabs realising that they can't leave Iraq completely to the Iranians - or that Shiite Iranian influence to be countered by Sunni Turkey.
That was the argument pro-Americans provided in response to Arab concerns about Iraq falling in Iran's hands as a result of Americans empowering the Shiites and weakening the Sunnis in the country under occupation.
American military surge is said to have reduced violence; or at least that is what the Bush administration wants to say before leaving office. This new Arab diplomatic surge is aimed at what? Reducing political tension, ethnic and factional struggles in Iraq, or just combating Iranian influence in the country! It might just be a cosmetic move to give the permanent American military presence in Iraq a fake regional blessing.
Factions
America is accusing Iran of bribing some Iraqi politicians to oppose the security deal, so would Arab embassies in Baghdad counter that by persuading other Iraqi factions to accept the deal?
But that would increase the factional tension - already strife and bloody - in the unstable country, and would contradict the goal of promoting reconciliation to strengthen the Iraqi state. Some would argue that just giving the Iraqi government an "Arab option", to make it have another choice than Iran or Turkey, is enough in itself to justify the current trend - regardless of a concerted Pan-Arab strategy to reclaim Iraq as an Arab country.
Again, this is very much questionable as previous experience with Arab efforts in Iraq was not encouraging. It is up to the Iraqis themselves to decide what is best for them.
Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer
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