Opinion | Columnists
Iraq pact a means to an end
Sadrists in the Iraqi parliament banged their table tops in protest last week as the US-Iraqi pact (Status of Forces Agreement, or Sofa) was read out.
- By Mayada Al Askari, Staff Writer
- Published: 23:35 November 24, 2008
Sadrists in the Iraqi parliament banged their table tops in protest last week as the US-Iraqi pact (Status of Forces Agreement, or Sofa) was read out.
A few hours later, Moqtada Al Sadr issued a hand-written communique tailed with his signature calling upon members of the Iraqi parliament to refuse the "degrading" pact, which in his opinion is a deed selling Iraq out to the US.
But how can we consider the Sofa agreement an act of treason by the Iraqi government when in reality approving the pact will put the country on the road towards full sovereignty once the last US soldier leaves?
Scores of Iraqi soldiers with armoured vehicles and "sniffer" dogs blocked off roads through the centre of the capital ahead of a Sadrist march after Friday prayers later in the day.
The soldiers were there for two reasons: one, to protect the procession, and two, to control violence, if it happens. This scene in itself tells us a lot, for there were no US troops around and the procession had actually been approved by the government, a heartening development for anyone who believes in democracy.
An Iraqi parliament member who refused to have his name printed said: "If the Sadrists have their way, what will happen after the US troops pull out of our country?"
The lawmaker's concern is understandable, as the US will withdraw its troops from Iraq if the security pact between the two governments is not signed, a course of action outlined by David Satterfield, senior advisor to the US secretary of state and the country's Iraq coordinator. This will create chaos in Iraq and martial law will be declared, adding to the people's misery.
So what will happen if this nightmare scenario becomes a reality?
Chances are the southern part of Iraq will erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. The Kurds will seek to strengthen their borders and invite a US troop presence there.
Iraq will remain under the UN Chapter VII, which will deem it an outlaw country - the worst thing that could happen to Iraqis.
Subsequently Iraq will separate into three, four, five or more different regions, but not the way everyone had envisioned, as the south will have several regional governments, such as Basrah, Najaf and Kerbala, each becoming a mini entity, and there's no predicting how the internal friction could play out.
An ugly prospect
There was a ring of truth to what Gary Anderson, a retired Marine colonel now working for a defence contractor in Iraq, had to say: "It will be ugly".
Iran would have a heyday in the south of Iraq, where its currency and language will prevail and nothing of Iraq will remain.
In the western region, Al Qaida would be able to recruit better, raise more money and kill more innocent Iraqis. And regardless of whether Iraq breaks apart or outsiders take over after a US pullout, a breakout of violence is inevitable, making the current Iraqi scene today look like a monk's sanctuary.
Looking at pictures taken of the Friday prayers from a tall building by a Sadrist photographer, one can't but help wonder: are all these people aware that Iraq will enjoy complete sovereignty and freedom and emerge clear of the UN's Chapter VII in three years, if Sofa is approved, and what they stand to lose if the majority of the Iraqi parliament caves in to the demand to scrap the pact?
More than half of Iraq's 275 lawmakers are said to be in favour of signing the Sofa agreement, which is a positive sign for tomorrow's final vote on the issue.
In a survey conducted by the semi-official Al Sabah newspaper, 5,576 Iraqis were asked about their opinion on the Sofa agreement. A good 46.1 per cent of the respondents said they were in favour of signing it, 34.5 said they weren't in favour of it, and 19.4 said they were undecided. The survey gives a good idea of the prevailing mood in Iraq.
The majority want the US troops to stay on for a while as, sadly, Iraqis are not ready to face each other yet, without the US standing by ready to step in should the need arise.
Iraq needs the US buffer zone reassurance and the US signature to clear it from Chapter VII. One hugely positive development amid all the upheaval over the agreement with the US is that Iraqis are, temporarily at least, shouting and not shooting, a wish that has come true for General David Petraeus, commander of the United States Central Command.
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