Opinion | Columnists
Iranian defiance is carefully calculated
Tehran's statement that it will build 10 more enrichment facilities is part of a wider push for recognition
- by Joseph A. Kechichian, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:00 December 3, 2009
- Image Credit: by Nino Jose Heredia, Gulf News
In a loud declaration, the typically self-effacing Iranian government announced that it planned to build an additional 10 facilities to enrich uranium that, needless to say, represented a dramatic expansion of the country's nuclear programme. Several countries, both in the region and around the world, will be alarmed that Tehran is about to cross the nuclear threshold and that its latest decision heightened already strained tensions. Under the circumstances, was President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement, which was timed as a clear response to the International Atomic Energy Agency censure for "breach of its obligation" under UN treaties, a wise move?
Iran first initiated its long-term nuclear projects in 1962 when the Kennedy administration, in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis with the Soviet Union, sought to invest in future allies. While the shah became a Western policeman in the Gulf, ostensibly to watch over some countries that could not be fully trusted, revolutionary Iran earned Western scorn. Since 1979, a lasting legacy of animosity has lingered between Washington and Tehran, because American prisoners were released after 444 days of imprisonment under the most humiliating circumstances. Lest one dismiss the linkage that exists between past and current policy choices, one has to remember that foreign policy designers cherish perpetual memories, attempting to right perceived wrongs from a bygone era. It is the rare decision-maker who turns the page and, despite calls to engage Iran, the Obama administration does not seem to be different from its predecessors.
Consequently, it now appears that the region may be headed towards a more confrontational phase, one that will be rather risky — even if Iran has a legitimate case to prepare for the country's enormous energy needs. The tricky part for Tehran is its ongoing nuclear expansion, which would give it a vast quantity of fuel, certainly enough to make a few bombs. In fact, once the projected construction goes through, Tehran's current staple of 8,745 centrifuges to enrich uranium — though only half are probably operational at Natanz — would reach the astronomical figure of 500,000. Logically, such capabilities mean that Iran will become a nuclear power, sooner than many anticipate.
Regional recognition
Indeed, these new plans are well within Iran's sovereign rights, and while it seldom tires from declaring that its programmes are for civilian purposes, what does Tehran really want? Simply stated, Iran desires to attain a regional power status, including in the Muslim world, which will recognise and acknowledge its pre-eminence. Nevertheless, this is a double-edged sword, because once Iran acquires a nuclear capability, it will quietly join the other nuclear powers, incapable of using its expensive potential, for fear that it would be bombed out of existence.
Still, Iran is not as dangerous as analysts often make it out to be, with Ahmadinejad playing a game of political brinkmanship for his domestic survival. In fact, the vast majority of his countrymen believe that Iran must acquire nuclear weapons because Israel possesses them too and, more important, because they know that Iran is no threat to Israel. This may sound odd but Iranians are eminently pragmatic, having maintained close ties with Israel throughout the past few decades, even if current personalities on both sides excel in exaggerated rhetorical oratory.
Given the overall tone, a cynical analyst may argue that Iran will continue to enrich uranium and build as many nuclear warheads as it can to deter Israel, without objections from the latter. Iranians correctly remind the international community that Israel destabilises the Middle East, treasuring intrinsic abilities to remain a source of perpetual conflict, best illustrated by the June 7, 1981 destruction of the Iraqi Tamuz nuclear facility. Timidly, Tehran will not volunteer details on its own bombing of the same facility on September 30, 1980, during the Iran-Iraq War, which is the height of sophistry.
In the event, today both Israel and Iran are engaged in a carefully choreographed dance, which keep the entire region on edge. On the Israeli side, periodic large-scale military rehearsals demonstrate long-range strike aptitudes (a June 2008 exercise involved more than 100 F-16 and F-15 fighters taking part in the manoeuvres over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece), while on the Iranian side denials abound even as the programme endeavours to build a nuclear arsenal as quickly as possible. As current programmes stand, it seems that Israel and Iran will devise a new balance of power compact for the Middle East, which would create existential dilemmas for the entire Arab world. Remarkably, and to its credit, Israel understands that Iran is no longer intimidated by military might, and that it must come to terms with its nascent nuclear neighbour.
Therefore, it may be safe to argue that Iran will not buckle to more sanctions, displaying measured obduracy. Moreover, while Ahmadinejad may not be the most popular leader in Iran, he displays a shrewd understanding of domestic concerns. His defiant message, that Tehran does not appreciate being treated like a child by the international community, will sit well throughout his divided country and it behooves regional and world leaders not to misread his calculated moves.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
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