Opinion | Columnists
Iran crisis is likely to explode
The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is hotting up, causing some observers to predict that it threatens to become the gravest international crisis of 2006.
- By Patrick Seale, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:31 May 3, 2009
The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is hotting up, causing some observers to predict that it threatens to become the gravest international crisis of 2006.
The issues involved are relatively simple. Iran claims the right under Articles 1 and 4 of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which it is a signatory, to master the uranium fuel cycle for peaceful purposes. It mines uranium and has for several years been conducting research into the enrichment process.
Under an $800 million (Dh2.9 billion) contract, Russia is helping Iran build a nuclear power plant at Bushehr on the Arabian Gulf. In spite of its large reserves of oil and gas, Iran is planning more nuclear power plants and wants to be able to provide its own fuel for them, without having to depend on others.
Russia has offered to enrich Iran's uranium for it, but Iran has so far rejected the offer. It wants to be able to do the job itself. Russia has also agreed to sell Iran an anti-missile defence system worth $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion), clearly to protect its nuclear facilities against hostile attack.
Iran's civilian nuclear programme is transparent and is being regularly inspected by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA), headed by Dr Mohammad El Baradei.
The trouble is that the United States and its allies and Israel in particular believe that Iran's civilian nuclear activities are a screen for a covert military programme. No evidence of such a program-me has yet been found, but the fear is that once Iran masters the uranium fuel cycle, the ability to build atomic weapons will be within its reach.
A European troika composed of the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany has attempted to persuade Iran to halt its research into uranium enrichment. This effort has now failed, posing a problem for the international community. What further pressure can be brought to bear on Tehran?
Over the coming weeks, the Europeans and the United States will seek to mobilise support from China and Russia, as well as from India and members of the Non-Aligned Movement, to refer Iran to the UN Security Council in the hope that the threat of international sanctions will induce Iran to give up uranium enrichment. An emergency meeting of the IAEA board of governors has been called for early February to consider the matter.
Made clear
But last week, Iran made clear that if it were referred to the Security Council it would stop cooperating with the IAEA, would send the inspectors home and might even withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Hotheads in Israel and among Washington's neoconservatives have been urging the United States to solve the problem by attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Rumours have been rife of preparations for a US pre-emptive strike, perhaps in conjuction with Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of Israel's far-right Likud Party, has said that if he won the elections next March 28, he would be inspired by the example of a former Israeli prime minister, Menachem Begin, who sent bombers to destroy Iraq's nuclear facility in 1981. No doubt angered by Israel's incitement of the international community against it, as well as by Israel's oppression of the Palestinians, Iran's new President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map"! Such undiplomatic pronouncements have fuelled regional tensions.
The present crisis can be traced back to the grievances Iran harbours against the Great Powers. In the Second World War, Iran was divided between British and Russian spheres of influence. In 1953, the United States and Britain overthrew Mohammad Mosaddeq's nationalist government because it dared nationalise Iran's oil. The US propped up the Shah to defend its interests in the Gulf and has been hostile to the Islamic republic ever since the Shah's overthrow in 1979. During the eight-year Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), the US backed Iraq.
From the Iranian point of view, the US the "Great Satan" has also been guilty of building Israel up into a threatening regional power and has helped it maintain its nuclear monopoly. There seems little doubt that Iran is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, if only as a deterrent against the sort of terrible fate Iraq has suffered at America's hands in the past three years.
At this late stage, the solution to the nuclear crisis might lie in direct US-Iranian negotiations to resolve their long-standing quarrels; in scaling back America's military presence in Iraq and the Gulf; and above all in genuine efforts to create a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, beginning with IAEA inspections of Israel's nuclear facilities.
As Dr El Baradei has often warned, Israel's nuclear arsenal has inevitably driven other regional powers to look to their defences.
Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.
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