Opinion | Columnists
Iran and US play the game of deceit
Just like Penelope in Homer's Odyssey, the Americans in Geneva actually wove by day. But in another thought, so did the Iranians over the past 15 days.
- By Sami Moubayed Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:21 August 18, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
In Homer's legend of the Odyssey, Penelope left alone during her husband Odysseus' long absence. She is approached by suitors, and tells them that she will marry one of them when she finishes weaving. She weaves by day, and unwravels her work by night, to prevent any of them from claiming her during his absence. That is what the Americans are doing with Iran; weaving by day and unravelling their work by night. Just like Penelope - they don't want to get married - or in this case, deal with the Iranian regime.
I just returned from a business trip to Washington DC and all the Americans I met with could not rule out the possibility of an upcoming military confrontation either between the US, or Israel, and Iran. Elsewhere in Washington, officials were pointing to a failed meeting between Nicolas Burns, the Undersecretary of State, and the Iranians, almost saying, "We tried everything with Iran, with little luck. The only option left is military force."
There are several theories floating in the Middle East. One says that the United States is working on a temporary solution to all pending crises involving Iran, to dislocate Iran from its Arab allies, in case of an upcoming American - or Israeli - attack on Tehran. This explains why solutions are being hammered out in the Occupied Territories, to break Iran from Hamas, and in Lebanon, to give no reason for Iran to meddle in the affairs of the strife-torn Mediterranean neighbour of Israel.
Another theory says that American public opinion is not ready for a new Iranian adventure, but will be charged into it following an upcoming "October Surprise"- being a terrorist attack somewhere - that will be blamed on the Iranians. A third theory - more practical than all of the above - says that nothing will happen in terms of confrontation with Iran, citing the new attitude in Washington that is weary of trouble in the Arabian Gulf.
What frightens me is that it's almost as if some people in the Arab world want this war to happen - without daring to say it - because it would lead to the destruction of either the United States or Iran, or both. Radical fundamentalists in the region, such as Al Qaida and its splinter organisations, who fear both Iranian Shiites and the Americans, see Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and US President George W. Bush as two sides of the same coin.
Gulf governments, however, are worried. The Saudis shiver at the thought of a US war on Iran. They equally shiver at the thought of Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb - and more so - if a deal is made between the Americans and Iran. All three are a nightmare for the future of the Gulf. Briefly, it seemed that the Iranians realised the seriousness of US threats, and started working on a U-turn. This was when Iranian envoys held their first high level contact in 29 years with an American official in Geneva to discuss Iran's nuclear ambitions.
William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State, represented the Bush Administration, along with Javier Solana, standing for the European Union. Iran was given a package of incentives, approved by the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reportedly "fought hard" for the meeting, since the White House was opposed to it. When it failed at getting the Iranians to change course, however, the Administration told Condi, "See what you get from engagement with terrorist states?" Solana, who was clearly frustrated at the failed meeting, came out muttering, "We have not got a clear answer... We didn't get an answer 'yes' or 'no'."
Some in the US viewed Iran's acceptance to sit down with Burns as nothing but tactics, claiming that the Islamic Republic was buying time - waiting for the Bush White House to leave office in January. That explains why strong words - big words and big sticks - were raised against Iran last Monday, given that the deadline passed for its acceptance of the US-EU incentives, with no success. But let us be realistic; did the Americans actually expect Iran to come out and say, "We will stop all uranium enrichment unconditionally?" If that is the case they were in for a big surprise, since Iran's Ambassador to Switzerland, Keyvan Imani, had put it bluntly, "It is not in Iran's agenda to discuss this issue."
Carrot and stick policy
The Iranians were not expected to cooperate with the US when all that they have been hearing from Washington since 2001 has been talk of regime change in Tehran. What exactly did Burns offer the Iranians in Switzerland? The formula, called "freeze for freeze" says that the US would agree not to impose further sanctions on Iran - the only carrot being no stick - for a six-week period, during which the Iranians would agree not to add to their nuclear programme. During this probation period, if Iran acted in good faith, more substantive talks would follow only after Iran suspended its nuclear enrichment.
Iran wanted security gurantees from the US - not economic ones (although it certainly could use them as well). It wanted the US to stop speaking of regime change, and stop funding ethnic groups in Iran to destablise the country from within. The main issue for Iran was security guarantees - which Burns failed to offer. The Burns meeting with Saeed Jalili was not as ground-breaking as the media claimed. Other meetings have taken place between the two states on Iraq since 2003.
Burns refused to have a one-on-one with Jalili. According to sources familiar with the talks, Burns did not even directly address the Iranian diplomat. He also vetoed the idea of having his picture taken with the Iranian envoy-which the Iranians did not mind - and which naturally was frowned upon by Tehran. The mullahs just said, "These gestures are simply neither encouraging nor do they create the slightest kind of confidence between us."
Just like Penelope, the Americans in Geneva actually wove by day. But in another thought, so did the Iranians over the past 15 days.
Last week, Iran announced the launching of its first communications satellite, with plans to build a spy satellite by 2015. This raised more than just eyebrows throughout the Arab Gulf. Twenty-four hours earlier, it illegally opened two administrative offices on the occupied Abu Mousa island of the UAE, angering not only the UAE but the entire Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Arab League. As if that were not enough to scare off whatever sympathisers it had in the Gulf, Iran created more tension when its Deputy Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mohammadi said that Arab Gulf states and their rulers would soon be facing a crisis of legitimacy, noting, "The Middle East will remain as a centre of developments and crises so long as the royal regimes in the Gulf remain in place, and conflicts will not be resolved without the disappearance of these traditional regimes."
Not exactly the best thing to say when you are ostensibly searching for more friends than enemies for Tehran.
Unlike Penelope, both the Americans and the Iranians did not even wait for nightfall to unweave. They also unwove by day.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
Your comments
Iran is bent on expanding its hegemony over the GCC and the Middle East at large. The US had an agreement with its European allies that the US would provide the stick and Europe would bear the carrots, alas, Iran has consistently refused several generous offers to stop their enrichment activity.
Keep in mind that Iran's foreign policy actions have a domestic effect. Iran's President is coming more and more under pressure for his failed domestic policies- inflation, unemployment, isolation, etc. The theocracy needs attention elsewhere for as long as possible.
Ben
Washington, DC,United States
Posted: August 19, 2008, 16:07
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