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India is taking on the dictators
Over the last fortnight, fiercely democratic India has been forced to juggle with the supreme irony, that is how to pursue relations with two military dictatorships on either side of the border.
- By Jyoti Malhotra, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:16 October 8, 2007
- Image Credit: Illustration: Ramachandra Babu/Gulf News
Over the last fortnight, fiercely democratic India has been forced to juggle with the supreme irony, that is how to pursue relations with two military dictatorships on either side of the border.
On the west, with General Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan, and on the east with General Than Shwe of Myanmar.
Frankly, Delhi seems to have come to grips with the situation in Myanmar better than it has with Pakistan. Perhaps India's relations with Pakistan are still far too complex after 60 years of partition, for Delhi to behave as nimbly as the situation demands it.
In fact, despite the continuing political turmoil in Pakistan, Delhi continues to believe that Musharraf will withstand the prevailing turmoil. His re-election as President over the weekend, adds to the belief that he leads a charmed life.
It helps that the newly appointed vice-chief of staff Ashfaque Kiani will be beholden to Musharraf in Pakistan's political hereafter - meaning, even after Benazir Bhutto comes home later in the month, reinvents herself and convincingly wins the general elections early next year.
Unfortunately for Delhi, the surprises will continue. The establishment first was surprised at the political outpouring in the aftermath of Nawaz Sharif's unceremonious eviction from Islamabad airport last month. Even though the people were not allowed to come out on the streets, and Pakistan's major political parties failed to rally their cadres, fact is that Musharraf's terrible treatment of Nawaz Sharif, in full glare of Pakistani private and captive television cameras, went down very badly in the eyes of the people.
The second surprise for Delhi came when the lawyers protested Musharraf's determination to go ahead with a clearly rigged election last week, and along with journalists covering the event, were brutally beaten by the police. That was a red letter day in the annals of Pakistan's road to democracy, because Islamabad banned all footage of the demonstration. And yet it got out.
Getting weaker
Here in Delhi, we watched how the General was getting weaker and weaker politically. But the Indian establishment continued to root for the General. The third surprise came when Benazir's Pakistan People's Party walked out en masse during Musharraf's re-election from the National Assembly. Musharraf won of course, but the walkout considerably damaged the credibility of the election.
Perhaps Delhi will, sooner or later, be forced to rethink its overly pragmatic course of action that it has adopted, especially vis-Ã -vis its neighbourhood.
Myanmar is a case in point. China's overwhelming influence in Myanmar has led Delhi, over the last many years, to woo the Myanmarese military junta. Each time a general came to town, the red carpet was rolled out and willing journalists persuaded to interview them. Foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee was among the first international leaders to visit Than Shwe in January in his new capital in Naypitaw in the heart of the country.
Considering India had abandoned its traditional space, its civilisational ties with the deeply Buddhist people of Myanmar, in favour of politically pragmatic relations with the Myanmarest military regime, was a big policy shift in itself.
And so for the longest time, over a month, as protesting Buddhist monks walked the streets of Yangon against the military regime, Delhi kept a deliberate silence. There was no word at all, almost as if the monks didn't matter at all.
And then all hell broke loose in Yangon a couple of weeks ago. The junta, having had enough, cracked down and killed ten monks. The world reacted, and along with Delhi. So much so that the Indian government was forced to backtrack and go along with a European Union-sponsored resolution at the Human Rights Commission in Geneva last week, asking for the release of the jailed democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
From praising the Myanmarese generals for allowing the Indian army to pursue anti-Indian insurgents seeking refuge in Myanmar, India was forced to temper policy. Of course, Delhi called for continuing good neighbourly relations with the junta, but the about-turn was clear. And it had taken place under pressure from the people of India, who began to feel that it was time to end a pragmatic foreign policy in favour of a more feeling one.
Perhaps, the establishment will undertake a similar revision vis-Ã -vis Pakistan. Delhi has invested so heavily in the Musharraf regime, that it has quite forgotten that the unpredictable Bhutto has a history of turning the tables on her opposition.
More importantly, she is not willing to be a puppet on a string, whether of the army chief or of Musharraf.
Still, with the political churning at home, these are difficult months for India. Mid-term elections are on the horizon, with the Left parties ready to pull out over the government's decision to go ahead with the nuclear deal with America.
Once again, the Indian sub-continent is on fire. Its worthwhile to remember that until 1935, Myanmar (then Burma), Pakistan and India were part of one country, then run by the British. Partition across various frontiers took place because of the differing aspirations of the people.
Those aspirations have not even been partially fulfilled. Perhaps that accounts for all the trouble taking place in all these independent nations.
Jyoti Malhotra is the Diplomatic Editor of The Telegraph newspaper, India.
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