Opinion | Columnists
Gulf states are in a dilemma
They are caught between their strategic alliance with the US and the ambitious Iranian design to intimidate, co-opt and dominate the most volatile and coveted region in the world.
- By Abdullah Al Shayji, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:21 August 17, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states seem to be in a quandary. They are caught between their strategic alliance with the US and the ambitious Iranian design to intimidate, co-opt and dominate the most volatile and coveted region in the world. Iran emerged as the beneficiary of the strategic vacuum by default, after the US toppled its arch nemesis Saddam Hussain in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The GCC states are hapless bystanders and mute witnesses to the showdown between the Americans and the Iranians over their grand designs to dominate what Washington labels as the "Broader Middle East and North Africa". The two rivals have resorted to moves ranging from hyping up tensions in a volatile atmosphere of war-mongering to behind the scenes negotiations on the hope to avert a conflict through a grand bargain. The game of brinkmanship is evolving into moves and counter-moves to advance the interest of each in what seems to be a zero sum game between the US and Iran. Both of them are relying on their proxies and trump cards. Meanwhile, Iran is betting on to up the ante of high stake politics to dominate the region.
The whole region is oscillating between the threat of an imminent war due to Iran's rejection of the international community's demand to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, and the possibility of a grand bargain to avert it through a consensus among traditional long term rivals - the US and Iran, and Syria and Israel. Such a possibility could change the dynamics of the whole turbulent region, with concomitant repercussions that could change the region's dynamics drastically.
Credence
What gives credence to the idea of accommodation is the moderate stance of the Bush administration vis-a-vis Iran. In my column, titled "Is there a shift in US policy?" (July 21), I argued: "It seems that the US administration is warming up to a dialogue and reconciliation with Iran. There are indications that the US is moving in this direction. It has asked the Under Secretary for Planning Bill Burns to participate, along with the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, in talks with Iran to persuade it to suspend its uranium enrichment programme in exchange for economic and political incentives. It was presented to Tehran last month by the 5+1 group. In addition, the US is touting the idea of opening an American interest section in Tehran with Iranian approval. But the big question remains, is this move by the US a lasting shift in its strategy, or an aberration of a fleeting tinkering which will be short lived?"
Given the dynamics of the developments, it seems the latter is the order of the day. Apparently, the reprieve was short lived. The region is back to the escalation mode with tensions, bellicose statements and sabre rattling from the two sides. Iran seems to be dragging its feet and delaying its response to the 5+1 package of incentives. The 5+1 group comprises the five permanent members of the UN plus Germany. Iran is faced with a formidable tough stance taken by the US and its European allies to slam Tehran with tougher sanctions. The major powers have agreed to consider a fourth UN resolution to toughen the sanctions regime against a belligerent Iran. Tehran in retaliation has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, Iran even went as far as threatening the GCC states.
In an unprecedented move, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mohammadi, in a most provocative speech doubted the legitimacy of the regimes of the Gulf Cooperation Council States, and even went as far as predicting their demise. He stated, "the Middle East will continue to be unstable as long the... regimes in the Gulf exist. Disputes won't be solved unless these regimes cease to exist". Mohammadi's remarks were not only provocative, but insulting and displayed Iran's position on the status of the GCC states.
Provocative
The GCC's Secretary-General Abdurrahman Al Attiyah voiced an unaccustomed scathing attack over the provocative remarks. He described the remarks in an undiplomatic tone as unwarranted, disappointing, and acrimonious. He went on to argue "the GCC states hope that all powers would understand that the dominant greed and illegitimate designs would not materialise and he is mistaken, who believes the the current situation is conducive for domination by undermining others' interests".
Al Attia demanded an immediate explanation from Iran. Mohammadi retracted his remarks and blamed the press for distorting his remarks. He insisted belatedly, and unconvincingly, that Iran's foreign policy seeks to respect the sovereignty of its neighbouring states, their governments and for strengthening his country's ties with them.
Such a provocative stance by the Iranians has awakened our fears and caused the regimes and the people of the GCC states to tread carefully with the Iranians. The onus is on the Iranians to prove by words and deeds that they have no ill-feelings towards its neighbours. Tehran continues to provoke us and force us to hedge our bets, as we follow anxiously the ongoing saga between the Iranians and the Americans, in the twilight period of the Bush Administration.
Our plight is clear. It is a Catch 22 for us. We are in a no win situation. It will be a major devastating blow for us if push comes to shove and war breaks out. On the other hand, it is a losing affair for us, if there were a deal and the US and Iran reach a grand bargain which could undermine our interests. This is the fate of the vulnerable and the weak in the high game of politics.
Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit- Kuwait University.
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