Future looks bleak for Yemen

Since the failed attempt by Omar Farouq Abdul Muttalib to blow up a plane over Detroit on Christmas Day, Yemen has been in the spotlight, especially in the West. Analysts are now assessing its dangers as a haven for Al Qaida, a failed state and a powder keg that could explode, causing mayhem far beyond its borders. Yemen has long been plagued by chaos, terrorism, proxy wars and insurgency, but it has not previously received much attention from the West.

Anthony Cordesman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in a recent study, The New "War on Terrorism", that it is important to look beyond today's headlines about Yemen and consider the broader range of threats the US now faces on a regional basis. He believes them to be "generational": "They involve far more than a war on terrorism, and involve a wide mix of insurgencies and state actors using different means and pursuing different goals. They also require a wide mix of different US responses and often efforts that will last until 2020 and beyond."

Yemen has become a safe haven for Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which trained and equipped Abdul Muttalib to carry out his suicidal mission. As a result, Yemen now joins Afghanistan and Pakistan as areas of focus for the US counterterrorism campaign. US President Barack Obama has, for now, ruled out sending troops to Yemen. Nevertheless, 2010 looms as a tough year for Yemen and there is likely to be more US involvement in intelligence, training and funding for Ali Abdullah Saleh's embattled government.

Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran who advised Obama before the Afghan troop surge, wrote in his blog: "The attempt to destroy Northwest Airlines flight 253 en route from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day underscores the growing ambition of [Al Qaida's] Yemen franchise, which has grown from a largely Yemeni agenda to become a player in the global Islamic jihad in the last year. Since merging with the [Al Qaida] franchise in Saudi Arabia last January and renaming itself [Al Qaida] in the Arabian Peninsula, it has stepped up operations in Yemen itself, struck into Saudi Arabia, and now operates on the global stage. The weak Yemeni government of President Ali [Abdullah Saleh], which has never fully controlled the country and now faces a host of growing problems, will need significant American support to defeat AQAP."

The Obama administration was caught with its guard down on Christmas Day. The breach in security exposed the need for more coordination and speedier intelligence analysis. As a result, Republican criticism of Obama for being too soft will reach fever pitch in the run-up to the mid-term elections in November.

Al Qaida is looming again as the major threat to US national security. No wonder the Obama administration plans to ask Congress for a record defence budget for fiscal year 2011, in excess of $708 billion (Dh2.6 trillion). According to the Associated Press, the military's main objectives will be "winning the current wars while preventing new ones" and "its core missions will include both counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations."

Widening the war

The war on terror is being widened to include more troubled and failed states. In addition to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia, Yemen is quickly becoming a problem. To make things worse, Yemen is also engaged in a bloody battle against the Al Houthi insurgency in northern Yemen. This battle has spilled over into Saudi Arabia, which has engaged in cross-border skirmishes with the Al Houthis. This conflict poses a serious threat to Saudi national security, and to the GCC as a whole. There are indications that the Al Houthis are being supported by Iran, which has lashed out at the Saudis. The Saudis have responded in kind, inflaming the already tense situation in a region where crises are not in short supply.

Yemen, a small, poor Arab country, is frighteningly close to being a failed state. It is ranked 155th in the UN development index, and 154th in the corruption index. It is among the worst 20 states in the world.

A collective effort by the West, led by the US, and the GCC states is required to help Yemen. A Marshall Plan of sorts could be in order.

Resorting to counterterrorism and drone attacks exclusively, without addressing poverty, backwardness and regional meddling, will not solve the problem. There has to be a concerted effort to go beyond the symptoms and deal with the causes of the disease. As Cordesman aptly argued, there is a need for an "enduring commitment that balances the use of deterrence, containment, diplomacy, aid, counterterrorism and military force to meet all of this complex mix of threats and continue to do so over the next quarter century."

We should heed this advice before it is too late and Yemen turns into a new Afghanistan on our borders.

Dr Abdullah Alshayji is a professor of political science at Kuwait University.