Discussing Britain’s Europe policy earlier this year, a senior adviser to the prime minister had shrugged: “I know we’re accused of putting all our eggs in the Merkel basket. But, frankly, we don’t have another basket.”
Today, the limitations of that policy — based around courtship of the German chancellor — will be exposed. At a European Union (EU) summit, Britain is likely to find itself comprehensively outvoted in its effort to block the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as the next president of the European Commission (EC). Angela Merkel will not ride to British Prime Minister David Cameron’s rescue.
In normal times, there is genuine personal warmth between the German chancellor and British prime minister. Merkel and Cameron also have similar ideas about reforming the EU: Both are economic liberals who emphasise competitiveness. Unlike previous German leaders, who have done little to hide their exasperation with London, Merkel recently made an emotional defence of UK membership of the EU, telling the Bundestag that it was “gross negligence, indeed unacceptable”, to casually accept the idea of Britain leaving.
All of this raised hopes in 10 Downing Street that Merkel could deliver the EU reforms that Cameron had promised his country’s electorate. The German chancellor’s reception, when she spoke to a joint session of the houses of parliament in Westminster last February, was warm — bordering on sycophantic — with politicians of all parties grinning fixedly as they hung on her every word. Yet, the chancellor’s message was carefully balanced. She would do what she could to keep Britain in the EU — but there were limits to what she could do.
The UK government is currently discovering just what those limits are. Merkel’s ability to accommodate its demands is seriously constrained by the fact that she is in a coalition with the Social Democrats. Much of the German media also seem convinced that a rejection of Juncker will be a grave blow to democracy in Europe. Left to their own devices, Cameron and Merkel could probably have sorted out the commission presidency and a host of other EU issues over a convivial lunch. In reality, both leaders are too trapped by domestic political pressures to strike a deal.
That is a shame because the broader basis for Anglo-German cooperation in Europe is stronger than it has been for many years. The traditional Franco-German motor has been sputtering — affected by the comparative weakness of the French economy and President Francois Hollande’s feeble, but irritating (to Berlin), rebellion against German-inspired economic austerity. In contrast, the British and German government see eye-to-eye on economics. At the recent Konigswinter conference, which brings together British and German politicians, there was tangible warmth between George Osborne, Britain’s youthful Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Wolfgang Schauble, his veteran German counterpart. Both men have been champions of flinty austerity and have suffered the brickbats of the Keynesian chorus for their pains. (The fact that they were speaking together in the Keynes Room at King’s College, Cambridge, was a pleasant irony.) Both feel vindicated by events.
Reluctance to sign blank cheques
As the Berlin government has become more concerned about financial profligacy in southern Europe, so it has placed a higher value on keeping the United Kingdom inside the EU — as another big power that supports orthodox economics and liberal reforms. The British are instinctively sympathetic to German reluctance to sign blank cheques for southern Europe. But while they share an economic vision, the British and the Germans are miles apart in their political visions. The Brits remain allergic to the idea of political union in Europe, believing that democratic legitimacy is rooted in the nation-state. The German political establishment remains wedded to ever closer political union for Europe. As a result, the argument about Juncker is about much more than his fitness for the job. The European parliament’s claim to have the power to appoint the next president of the commission set alarm bells ringing in London, where it is seen as a huge step on the way to a federal Europe.
In the early stages of the Juncker crisis, Merkel sounded sympathetic to the British view. More recently, she has fallen silent. As a result, this week’s summit is all but certain to see Wayward Dave put in his place by his favourite ‘Aunt Angela’.
But two vital qualifiers need to be added to that picture. First, the deal is not yet quite done. Europe’s left-wing governments may try to demand a relaxation of Europe’s fiscal rules in return for backing Juncker. That condition is likely to be unacceptable to Merkel. So there is a small chance the deal can still unravel. Second, assuming that Juncker’s appointment does go ahead — with the British isolated — this is just an opening battle in a much bigger struggle over Britain’s place in Europe. Cameron and Merkel will be on opposite sides today. In the longer term, they could yet form a fruitful alliance.
— Financial Times