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Brown's moment of reckoning
Ramifications of MacDougall's death mean PM could lose much more than a friend.
- By Kevin Scott, Staff Reporter
- Published: 23:58 August 15, 2008
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces a hazardous by-election in his political heartland following the death of his close friend and ally John MacDougall. For a short period of time Glenrothes will become the most important name in British politics as Labour attempts to undo some of the damage caused by an embarrassing defeat in the Glasgow East by-election.
The particular intrigue surrounding this poll is that Glenrothes borders Brown's own Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency in Scotland. Furthermore, the Kingdom of Fife has always been a staunch Labour heartland; if Brown can't garner enough support to win here his prospects of success in a general election would appear increasingly slim.
Labour are already battered and bruised following a series of by-election disasters and Brown, confronted by high inflation and a slowing economy, knows there are people within his party plotting his demise. Foreign Secretary David Miliband is waiting in the wings should things get any worse for the beleaguered PM.
Scottish National Party (SNP) leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond will also be confident of striking another blow to Brown as his party continues its relentless dominance of Scottish politics.
The Scottish Labour Party still doesn't have a leader after Wendy Alexander resigned in June for breaking rules on declaring donations. Electoral defeat in Fife would certainly undermine whoever is elected as the new leader on September 13.
It is thought the Glenrothes by-election will take place in either October or November allowing Brown enough time to reassert his authority in a planned "autumn comeback".
But this particular doorstep challenge is something Brown could have done without. His personal pain at losing a dear friend could be compounded by a political blow that he may not recover from.
'Anyone but Labour'
Brown is struggling in the opinion polls and after defeats in Henley, Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East, how many more times will the electorate have to vote "anyone but Labour" to get their message across?
If Brown is dealt a huge vote of no-confidence from the electorate in Glenrothes, you can almost foresee the rippling domino effect, arguably already in motion, as constituency after constituency delivers a vote of no confidence in the government.
MacDougall, who died last week after a long battle against lung cancer, served Fife in many different capacities over the last three decades. He took the Glenrothes seat in 2005 with a massive 51.9 per cent of the vote and a massive majority of 11,000 over the second placed SNP.
But a lot has changed in a few short years. The SNP are now dominant in Scotland - they won in Central Fife, which includes Glenrothes, by nearly 1200 votes at last year's Scottish Parliament elections.
The Tories are also rejuvenated under David Cameron; it seems as though people just want change. A lot of voters aren't exactly sure where their allegiance lies but they do know they've had enough of Labour.
At the last by-election to be held in Fife in 2006, the Liberal Democrats seized power in a strong Labour seat. Following the death of Labour MP Rachel Squire in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency, where Brown actually lives, Lib Dem candidate Willie Rennie defeated Labour's Catherine Stihler. The swing from Labour to Lib Dem was 16.24 per cent.
But even that huge swing wasn't as big as the incredible 22 per cent achieved by the SNP in Glasgow East last month. Labour are vulnerable and there for the taking; it says a lot that many people are tipping the SNP as favourites to emerge victorious in Glenrothes when in years gone by there has been no safer bet than a Labour success in Fife.
Traditional Labour areas are changing colour on the political map all over the country. But if people really are disheartened with Brown there can be no stronger message than a withering defeat in his own backyard.
In a cruel twist of fate, it could transpire that in the area where Brown dreamed of becoming PM for many years it could be the denizens of Fife that strike the cruelest and most ironic blow to his hopes of remaining in the job.
Brown lost a close friend this week. But the ramifications of MacDougall's death could mean that in a few short months time, he could lose a whole lot more.
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