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Battling for peace in graveyard of empires
Ignoring Afghanistan has cost successive US administrations a great deal, but there is reason to hope Obama's policies will set the record straight.
- By Bruce Riedel, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 22:51 May 7, 2009
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
Twice in the last quarter century the US has squandered great victories achieved in Afghanistan by failing to follow up on battlefield success with an enduring and resourced commitment to help build a stable government in the country.
Both times the cost of taking its eye off the ball in Afghanistan has been high. It is imperative not to make the same mistake a third time or the cost will again be painful, and the US probably will not get a fourth opportunity.
In the late 1980s, after the largest covert action operation in the nation's history, the US-supported Afghan mujahideen defeated the Soviet 40th Red Army. Next, the Soviet Union itself collapsed. The mujahideen were badly divided, however, and quickly fell into civil war.
The US could have led an international effort to restore order and rallied key players like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to try to end the conflict. Instead, Afghanistan got virtually no attention from the White House or the US Congress.
By the late 1990s, the Taliban movement had taken power and was hosting the Al Qaida, which attacked America, first in 1998, then in 2000 and finally on September 11, 2001.
In late 2001, the CIA led a campaign to topple the Taliban with the support of the Northern Alliance, the Taliban's foe inside Afghanistan. Again the results were spectacular and came quickly.
By early 2002, the Taliban were routed, Al Qaida was on the run and the two groups were retreating into Pakistan. A concerted effort in 2002 and 2003 would have probably destroyed Al Qaida and developed an Afghan state that could exercise its control over the Pashtun belt in the south where the Taliban are the strongest.
Instead, US resources and attention shifted to Iraq and the Afghans got marginal support from Washington. By 2006, the Taliban had come back. Yet US resources continued to surge toward Iraq and the Taliban comeback accelerated. By the end of 2008, they had become increasingly confident and controlled much of the rural countryside in the southern Afghanistan.
Today, the war is being lost in Afghanistan, but it is not yet lost. US President Barack Obama has decided to send more resources to boost the campaign against the Taliban. That is a welcome move.
If the Taliban consolidate their position in southern and eastern Afghanistan it is certain they will again give Al Qaida safe haven to plot against America, expanding the sanctuary they already have in Pakistan.
There is no reason to believe that Al Qaida strongman Mullah Mohammad Omar has severed ties with Osama Bin Laden since 2001. Many have asked him to, including the Saudis last year, with no results.
If Omar did not delink from Al Qaida after the 2001 attacks, it is far less likely he will break when he senses a broken US will in Afghanistan. His goals are to drive the US out of the country and impose the medieval regime he built in the 1990s back on the Afghan people.
Even more devastating would be the impact on neighbouring Pakistan. A victory for the Afghan Taliban would encourage its new partners, the Pakistan Taliban, in their bid to take over the world's second-largest Muslim country.
This February, several Pakistani Taliban leaders united their forces and proclaimed their allegiance both to Omar and Bin Laden. Already on the march in Pakistan from the tribal frontiers to inside major cities like Karachi, a Pakistani Taliban further invigorated by its partner's success across the Durand Line would be well positioned to take over much of the country.
The Pakistani army would probably make a deal, as it already has in the Swat district. Al Qaida's room for manoeuvre would be even greater.
The entire Muslim world also has a stake in Afghanistan's future. Terrorists have been trained in Afghanistan in the past and the process will continue if the Taliban and Al Qaida triumph.
The US should urge Saudi Arabia to do more to help the Kabul government. The UAE has taken the bold decision to send troops to fight as part of ISAF. Other Muslim states should do the same or contribute to the fund for building the Afghan army and police.
As the US finally pours resources into the struggle in Afghanistan after years of neglect, it should press its Muslim friends to do the same - it is their battle, too.
Ignoring Afghanistan has cost the US a great deal. Now is the time to help the Afghan people, the vast majority of whom do not want the Taliban back, to build a national security force that can protect them. The US cannot afford to make the same mistake three times.
Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow at the Saban Centre for Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution. He has advised four US presidents on Afghanistan.
Your comments
Fairy tale story, very easy to write, but hard to implement. Can Obama really make a difference by sending in more troops?
Innocent civilians were killed as part of this war a few days back, when the two puppet presidents of Afghanistan
Noman Al Haq
Dubai,UAE
Posted: May 08, 2009, 16:42
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