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Attack's political implications
US raid inside Syrian territories seems more cogent if seen in Iraq security pact context.
- By Dr Marwan Kabalan, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:56 October 30, 2008
US-Syrian relations have reached a new low level after American special forces carried out a raid inside Syrian territories, killing 8 civilians and injuring many others.
The helicopter-borne attack into Syria wasn't perhaps the first but was by far the most controversial since the invasion of Iraq. Unofficial American sources claimed that the attack was aimed at a leading Al Qaida figure responsible for running weapons, money and foreign fighters across the border into Iraq. Yet, for Syria the attack was a reminder of the new political realties, resulting from the war on Iraq.
The timing of the attack was striking, to say the least. It came after the Syrian government recognised the US-backed Iraqi regime, established diplomatic relations with the Maliki government and appointed an ambassador to Baghdad.
Syria has also tightened control of the borders with Iraq, deployed more than 7,000 troops and established 600 checkpoints alongside the 670-km-long borders. For many analysts such an attack could have made more sense had it been carried out two or three years earlier, i.e. when the crisis between Syria and the US reached its peak over Iraq.
The US raid came also when Syria was attempting to adapt its policy to the post-9/11 regional order, hoping to have a fresh start with any new administration in the White House. Damascus has hence been doing things differently: talking to Europe, staying out of Lebanon, talking to the Israelis, and generally stressing the pragmatic aspect of its foreign policy. There has been even much speculation that Syria is about to cool down its relations with Iran. It should not be surprising therefore that the timing of the US raid inside Syria took many off guard and sounded like coming "out of the blue".
Yet, a scant analysis of the US raid suggests that the new Syrian approach to regional affairs has not paid off well in Washington and that the Bush administration seems as intent on punishing Syria as it ever was. The neo-conservatives of the White House may have not enough time though to finish what they have already started; so they are attempting to put as many obstacles as they possibly could to prevent the next administration, be that of Barack Obama or John McCain, from improving relations with Damascus. But there is much more than that to understand the "surprising" raid.
Hidden message
The Bush administration may have been seeking to soften Syria's opposition to the proposed US-Iraqi security agreement, which has not been so far ratified by the Iraqi parliament. By the same token, the raid may have been intended to send a message to the Iranians that they could face similar fate if they continue to oppose the ratification of the agreement. Syria and Iran oppose a clause in the agreement that permits the US forces in Iraq to carry out attacks against neighbouring states. The raid was also meant to suggest that the Iraqi government is still too weak to defend its territories and hence the need to ratify the agreement to institutionalise the presence of US forces.
Domestically, the Bush administration may have been attempting to enhance the chances of the Republican presidential candidate, whose popularity has been sinking in the polls for the past few weeks. The White House may have intended to put the war on terror and the relative success of the surge in Iraq back on the agenda at the eve of Election Day. The Democratic candidate Barack Obama has been benefiting a lot from the economic crisis, which has been making news headlines for the past two months. Putting national security issues - McCain's key strengths - back on stage could alter the picture and affect the decision of US voters.
All this suggests that the US raid inside Syria has more political implications than initially thought and that its security dimension was of little significance.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Centre for Strategic Studies and Research, Damascus University, Syria.
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