An explosive state of affairs

On February 25, I wrote in this column an article titled "Can the Middle East avoid war?" commenting on the growing tension in the region following the assassination of Hezbollah's top commander Emad Mughnieh in a car bomb in Damascus, and the violent reaction to it.

Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel with an "open war" and vowed to avenge the death of Mughnieh, which he believes will bring about major changes in the Middle East and "mark the beginning of the demise" of the Israeli state.

Since then many ominous events and developments have unfolded in the troubled Middle East which collectively have transferred the whole region into a huge powder keg with many matches out and ready to set it ablaze.

There were scenarios and discussions on who would strike the match first? Would it be the US due to the Iranian defiance over its nuclear programme and its "nefarious role in Iraq"?

Would it be Israel, by launching a retaliatory attack against Hezbollah to avenge its debacle in the war of 2006? Would it be Hezbollah attacking Israel to avenge the assassination of Mughnieh?

Meanwhile, the Iraq quagmire continues to simmer with a Shiites-Shiites internecine war in the southern part of the country and Al Sadr city. The Shiites are fighting for military and political control of the country.

On the other hand, moderate Arabs met in Bahrain and added Iraq to their alliance, while Iraq's neighbours met in Kuwait to show their support and solidarity to Baghdad. The only positive development was the leak of a Syrian-Israeli peace deal moderated by the Turks.

Alarming development

The clash between the two major competing powers, the American and the Iranian, in the region manifested itself in the derailing of the fourth round of discussion over the situation in Iraq.

But the alarming development is the manner in which Hezbollah overran Beirut and took control of major Sunni districts. This action gave rise to fears of Lebanon sliding into a civil war in a revisit of the vicious conflict which engulfed the country into 15 years of bloody strife from 1975-1990.

The Lebanese government's decision to dismantle Hezbollah's military communications network and firing the head of the Lebanese airport security apparatus precipitated the deteriorating situation in the country.

The Lebanese capital of 2 million people is being held hostage. There seems to be a state of Hezbollah emerging which has besieged the real state and is imposing its will over the citizens and infringing over the country's sovereignty.

Hezbollah called the steps taken by the Lebanese government as "tantamount to war" and responded with violence and took over of the city, besieged the government's headquarters and ransacked the Sunni majority neighbourhood in the capital.

They also shut down television and radio stations, and burnt offices of Almustaqbal newspaper owned by Al Hariri's family. The emasculated and beleaguered Lebanese government responded by depicting Hezbollah's move as "an armed and bloody coup".

The concern is that Lebanon is turning into a battle ground for two opposing factions. It has reached the point of no return as the escalating sectarian strife is going along the Iraqi lines.

More alarming is the lack of a way out of this quagmire, where both sides are entrenched in their positions and there does not appear an end in sight.

Moreover, such a stance contradicts the assurances given by Nasrallah, who repeatedly reassured the Lebanese public and officials that his militia's weapons won't be used against the Lebanese people but would always be directed and deployed against the real enemy, Israel.

Hezbollah's bravado has triggered a wide spread debate in Lebanon questioning the legitimacy and the immunity given to the militia to bear arms.

The recent action has also tarnished Hezbollah's clean record, after it broke its vows and deployed its weapons to intimidate and control the streets of Beirut.

The most annoying behaviour was the scene when the militia jubilantly fired their weapons in celebration after taking control of the streets of the Lebanese capital "as if they had liberated an occupied territory" as one Lebanese analyst puts it.

Intimidating behaviour

Hezbollah's leadership needs to come out and declare its real position and distance itself from such repugnant sectarian and intimidating behaviour which serves only to reduce Hezbollah's valiant role as a resistance and liberating force and not as an intimidating gang, which only tarnishes its achievements, its legacy and make Israel the real winner.

The tragic events in Lebanon point to the emergence of Hezbollah as the major player in the Lebanese state and the rise of the Shiite crescent which King Abdullah of Jordan has warned about, a few years ago.

The recent events show that the centre of power is shifting away from the Sunni majority to the Shiite minority. The real fear is the Lebanese tragedy, in a part of region which is in a flux, won't be limited to Lebanon only.

The shifting of the power centre is directed by Iran to serve its ambitious agenda of becoming the major regional power to be reckoned with.

So, the real question is where do we go from here? As the Middle East is sitting on a powder keg and many matches are out to light the fuse, will we be able to defuse this ticking time bomb or will it be too late? We need to defuse and remove that powder keg and these matches by all means.

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is a Professor of International Relations and the Head of the American Studies Unit- Kuwait University.