Opinion | Columnists
A solid nuclear pact in the making
United Arab Emirates and the United States are on the verge of signing a formal accord for civilian nuclear cooperation.
- By Joseph A Kechichian, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:27 December 17, 2008
- Image Credit: Illustration by Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
In a week that was dominated by hurling shoes at two heads of states and a Manama pitch that was nothing short of a threat, some good news emerged for the Gulf region, with the American announcement for plans to sign a nuclear pact with Abu Dhabi.
Press reports confirm that the United Arab Emirates and the United States are on the verge of signing a formal accord for civilian nuclear cooperation, which was supposed to be inked on November 16, when General Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, met President George W. Bush at Camp David.
The purposeful delay was apparently requested by the Emirati side to weigh sensitivities associated with the incoming administration as well as possible negative Congressional reactions.
Such hiccups notwithstanding, the deal represents a significant leap for Washington, as it no longer perceives the Gulf country as a mere gas station. Moreover, no one wants a repeat of the 2006 fiasco, when DP World was forced to amend a global purchase of ports from Britain's P&O, cancelling the portion that included several US holdings, because of alleged national security concerns. Three years after this mistake, Washington has come around to perceive the UAE as a legitimate power with domestic and regional concerns, including energy needs.
In fact, despite its large petroleum reserves, demand for energy use in the UAE is projected to rise dramatically over the next few decades. Speaking to the press a few months ago, Hamad Ali Al Ka'abi, the head of the country's nascent nuclear programme, declared: "We have determined that nuclear energy is an option the UAE cannot afford to ignore."
Critics of the pact - who will oppose any agreement between America and any Arab nation - raise concerns that the deal would most probably fuel nuclear proliferation in the region. They also point out to the UAE's complex ties with Iran to derail this arrangement. Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a staunchly pro-Israeli Republican representative from Florida, recently introduced legislation to require the White House verify that "the UAE hasn't acted as a conduit for banned goods and services to Iran for at least a year before it can get nuclear technology." House Resolution 7316 (12/9/2008), whose title is to restrict nuclear cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, and for other purposes," now sits in committee where it will be debated.
Its language is ominous - specifically concentrating on banned goods and services - which means verification will be near impossible. Iran is the UAE's largest trading partner with a healthy transshipment business for several technology items that could have military applications such as computers. How can the UAE prevent ordinary computers in Iran from being used in military applications?
Even more worrying, the Ros-Lehtinen measure will further require that President Barack Obama certify the UAE "has taken extensive measures to cut off the flow of financing and sensitive technologies into Iran," something which will pose another dilemma for the next American head of state.
Extensive safeguards
For its part, the outgoing George W. Bush administration observes that a nuclear agreement with Abu Dhabi would be a "model for promoting peaceful nuclear energy while guarding against weapons proliferation."
Washington can legitimately assert that its nuclear-power programme will have extensive safeguards, ostensibly to protect against nuclear materials being diverted to Iran or any other party, but also by insisting that Abu Dhabi sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as well as adopt International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.
In fact, the UAE apparently pledged to purchase nuclear fuel for its reactors from outside - chiefly American - suppliers, rather than developing its own, and agreed to hand over all of its nuclear waste for storage. It further accepted strict monitoring rules and spontaneous IAEA inspections. Contracts were recently signed with two engineering companies - Thorium Power Ltd. of Virginia and CH2M Hill of Colorado - to oversee all aspects of Abu Dhabi's nuclear-power programme.
William Travers, an American veteran of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, also joined the programme, which demonstrates the country's bona fide. Chances are excellent that Travers will not tolerate any shenanigans as far as nuclear trafficking may be concerned.
Nuclear power is coming to the Arabian Peninsula. In addition to its pre-signature negotiations with the UAE, Washington is engaged in discussions with the governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain. France signed a separate accord with Abu Dhabi in January 2008, ensuring that Paris is not denied a share of the lucrative pie; other nuclear powers will follow suit to extend assistance in developing nuclear energy for peaceful ends.
Still, it is important to be cautious, and refrain from repeating past errors in acquiring incompatible systems that waste money by erecting boondoggles. As for Iran, which is making undeniable progress in this area, it will slowly alter its perceptions of Arab neighbours. The latter will go from being subservient to capable nation-states with the wherewithal to provide for domestic energy needs while protecting intrinsic national security goals.
Dr. Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
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