Though the 2016 presidential election was touted as a close affair — with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton slated to become the 45th President of the United States — Republican candidate Donald Trump pulled off a stunning victory, notwithstanding his confirmed lack of qualification for the post.
Trump will now have the daunting task of restoring the damage from former US president George W. Bush and his catastrophic “shock and awe” that, unfortunately, President Barack Obama transformed into an undistinguished “wait and see” phenomenon. Will Trump now quickly “focus and serve” to make the US great again or will the post-Obama era convert to “steal and seal”?
Sixteen wasted years have certainly taken a toll on the American people, whose generous consumerist preferences were twisted and twirled to enrich the fabulously rich, instead of reinforcing the country’s genius — its middle-class population — in the name of globalisation. Many swallowed hook, line and sinker the mythology of globalisation — as if it were the panacea to eradicate poverty around the globe. On the contrary, and notwithstanding early praise by those who believed the world is flat, the integration of capital, technology and information across national borders only enriched globalisation gurus and few others. That cannot possibly go on but will, regrettably, continue, now that Americans have handed the keys of the treasury to a billionaire who will serve the top 1 per cent.
Among numerous concerns that will require the new president’s attention are the three permanent Es (Economy, Environment and Europe), which are always priorities, as well as dangerously evolving ties with Russia, China and the Muslim world.
Naturally, Trump will rely on many advisers and strategists to develop a set of policies to advance US and global interests — which are not always on par with each other, but can be if the will to salvage American power beyond raw military might is to survive into the century — even if every incumbent has the opportunity to advance US national interests while assuming the global leadership mantle.
Many will question whether the new president has both the will as well as the vision to add value, or whether he is poised to address some of the grave economic challenges that confront the country. His plans cover the gamut, but rest on the premise that taxes are too high and collected unfairly and that the wealthy, yes, those who make the most — like Trump — are paying more than their share.
The coming environmental crises, which Trump believes are all hoaxes, will hang like a Damocles’ Sword over the entire world too. If Trump steps away from the Obama pledge — made at the Paris climate conference — by relying on climate deniers in Congress to pass new protectionist legislation, we should all expect greenhouse gas emissions to increase, with unforeseen consequences.
From the Atlantic to the Urals, Europe has and will always remain the most vital foreign policy arena for Washington, because of shared values between their respective societies. Trump will surely need to repair ties he himself bruised and it will be fair to ask whether Washington will send Nato members a bill to defend the continent from Russia.
In Trump vision, which questions this and similar alliances, few should be surprised that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin will open a different page. Unlike Clinton, who has gone toe-to-toe with Putin, an obliging Trump will be at a clear disadvantage. Few doubt that Moscow will be far more aggressive everywhere that, to put it mildly, will dramatically increase global tensions.
Of course, a similar outlook can also be predicted for China, which is America’s largest trading partner. Simultaneously, Beijing is also Washington’s greatest geopolitical rival. And while the Chinese loathe instability, the Trump victory will confirm to many Chinese the inherent weakness of American democracy. Chinese leaders, who crave international as well as domestic stability, know that Trump will add instability to the global system, though time will tell whether such predictions will also mean that China will have to assume its share of responsibility for international affairs.
Finally, and unlike Obama who talked the talk in Cairo in 2009, Trump will need to change his focus from confronting a largely hostile Muslim world to serving common interests, topped by the desire to defeat extremists. His emphasis to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon will bring in more tension with Tehran, although the vast majority of Arab Gulf states will watch apprehensively, given his inherent anti-Muslim sentiments.
The US and the world are about to enter a new era that does not bode well for mankind. Obama’s much touted ‘hope’, which failed to add value and evolved into alienation and obstructionism, gave way to a post-Obama era that one prays will not convert to “steal and seal”.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is the author of the just published From Alliance to Union: Challenges Facing Gulf Cooperation Council States in the Twenty-First Century (Sussex: 2016).