Whatever we call the events that occurred and continue to take place in five large Arab countries — Egypt, Yemen, Libya Tunisia and Syria — in the last three years, revolutions or Arab Spring or otherwise, there are huge costs financially and socially being paid so far. The Arab Gulf states are picking up the bill or most of it at least and it is a large sum of money. They are paying either in kind or cash, but the question being asked in some donor countries is whether it is fair to pour such huge amounts of money into what seems almost like a black hole. Some think that the money is very much needed to be spent locally for development purposes. To the extent that some, like those in Kuwait’s parliament and media, do not like the events that are unfolding in Egypt. They are objecting to the toppling — the way they see it ­— of an elected president!

The political goal is obvious. The connections are wildly believed by observers, between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and sympathisers here in the Gulf. Still, the question is: To what extent can the Gulf countries financially help those so-called revolutionary Arab Spring societies? Largely, before the events of the Arab Spring, some of those states were witnessing an economic revival. For example in Egypt, despite the world economic crisis of 2008, the gross domestic national income was growing by 4.5 per cent in 2005 to 7.1 per cent in 2008. Tunisia was largely seen by economists as an icon of rapid development as the percentage of growth there was between 5 and 6 per cent for most of the first decade of this century. Yemen, which possesses limited national resources, was holding its economy in a satisfactory way. But in the three years since the revolutions, all those countries witnessed a drastic collapse of their respective economies.

Inflation is running high along with unemployment. In Tunisia, foreign investment has dropped by 30 per cent, unemployment has grown from 19 per cent to 25 per cent (we have to remember that the spark that triggered the revolution in Tunisia was unemployment) and corruption is widespread. In Egypt the situation is no better. There is high unemployment along with high inflation and the collapse of the tourist industry has coincided with political unrest.

The way out for most Arab countries which experienced “revolutions” is to seek quick help from the international community. Most of the help came from the Gulf. Qatar has invested in Libya and did so during the first stages of the Egyptian revolution but it has retracted after the events of June 30-July 3, 2013.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE came to the rescue of Egypt’s ailing economy with $12 billion (Dh44.13 billion) in aid. Billions have been promised to Yemen by the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Besides, aiding the Syrian revolutionary effort also cost a few billions and this is still going on. Active monetary injections are the way to stop those countries from becoming failed states, but for how long?

Politically risky

All in all, the Gulf countries have had to and are still footing these bills. Some experts think that all this financial help is not going to revive the respective economies. To the contrary, it is only going to weaken them. What is needed is around $160 billion for Arab Spring countries to survive. The promised sum is only $60 billion, and some of it has not even reached the respective central banks.

Egypt opted out of long negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of $4 billion as the conditions were harsh. In fact, the IMF sought certain economic reforms, but the government considered them politically risky to be applied! The treasury in Tunisia is nearly bankrupt, as was noted by some experts. There is no way out but to have a drastic economic change to correct the course and bring in long-awaited reforms.

To rely on aid, either international or regional, is risky in the medium and long terms — both for the affected economies as well as those providing them. There is growing resentment behind closed doors in these countries for the large sums of money being thrown down a deep hole.

It is necessary for everybody to realise that there can be no cutting corners when it comes to reforms — however harsh the measures may be. It is important to depend on one’s self and restore political stability by sharing power with other political factions. These countries will have to introduce drastic steps to fight the bureaucracy and corruption. These are the elements that are hindering what is left of these countries’ resources and threatening to deplete the capital of Gulf states that seek to benefit coming generations. It is dangerous and short-sighted — whatever the political reason behind it — if nothing is left of the capital that will be needed in the future.

Mohammad Alrumaihi is a professor of Political Sociology at Kuwait University.