The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is an ambitious leader who looks after the interests of his nation. That, in and of itself, is a good thing although his advisors ought to remind him that the Cold War is over and — thanks to the late Pope John Paul II — that chapter of contemporary history was a victory for the West. Occupying parts of Ukraine, threatening Baltic States, standing by the Syrian regime and now selling a sophisticated anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, which Moscow embargoed during the past five years, might appear to be sound, but they are not safe. Neither for Russia nor anyone else, because launching a mini Cold War fails to do justice to the original confrontation, and is probably a waste of energy. Simply stated, Russia has more in common with the West than with renegade elements or extremist governments, even if the Kremlin believes otherwise.
In the aftermath of the recent “parameters” framework between Iran and the international community, which Russia interpreted as yet another western accomplishment though it was not one — or, at least, not yet — Moscow seems to have decided to change agreed-upon rules to benefit from the anticipated post-sanctions environment. A few days ago, Putin signed a decree to unfreeze an existing ban on delivering the $800 million (Dh2.94 billion) contract for the Russian-made S-300 missiles, which was signed in 2007 and then placed in abeyance in 2010 after a series of United Nations sanctions were imposed on Tehran.
In as much as Russia wished to compete with the capitalist world and forge ahead with lucrative contracts with Iran, one could accept a certain logic to benefit from upcoming deals, although it probably was shortsighted to focus on military items. Washington apparently objected and while such deliveries complicated plans to eventually lift sanctions on Iran, few should anticipate a different outcome because, regrettably President Obama insisted on an eventual arrangement at all costs. What was irritating in the Russian move was the inevitable arms race that such sales engendered, since the conservative Arab monarchies could not remain indifferent.
Of course, this move was not a surprise since the permanent UN Security Council members along with Germany probably factored in a potential Putin initiative to complicate matters, though the real lesson was learned by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies that existing bans on the sale to Iran of “battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles or missile systems”, would eventually be lifted. What was certain was the pace that such steps might take and, equally important, the near-absolute guarantee that GCC states will seek and receive both a Western nuclear umbrella as well as massive quantities of weapons. How could Russia accept that an arms race was beyond the pale, except if the purpose was to create and encourage a mini Cold War?
Under the circumstances, it was fair to ask whether Moscow was happy to see an increasingly hot — if still a largely proxy conflict — between Iran and Saudi Arabia in such places as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and now in Yemen? How can these commissioned wars advance Russian interests, save as anti-US and anti-western initiatives that, truth be told, will not make a dent except to accelerate the ongoing arms race? One must hasten to add that western powers were not entirely innocent of these machinations, though one could at least make the argument that wary European countries acted as honest brokers and played ‘Devils Advocate’ whenever Washington went too far.
In time, and after a full accord is signed with Iran, a specific UN resolution would be put to a vote to lift the embargo, though adopting a preemptive move was neither wise nor foresightful. For everyone must acknowledge that Iran was engaged in full-scale proxy wars in several Arab states and is threatening a few more. Its leaders are buoyed with the international community’s plans to reconcile and open fresh economic markets, although such rewards ought to occur when, and only when, Tehran commits itself to genuine peace that will shun a Sunni-Shiite conflict.
Of course, Iran is entitled to protect itself too, but its leaders ought to know that violence begets violence and an arms race on one side of the Gulf will spill over on to the other.
For its part, Russia is certainly entitled to reap economic and trade benefits just as much as any other country, but its leaders are shortsighted to embark on a new Cold War, given that the last one proved to be both expensive for everyone and unbecoming too. For it was critical to shout out loud that mankind deserved better than the permanent members of the Security Council to perpetually compete amongst each other instead of imposing the peace that they agreed to at the end of Second World War. If those who have the power to seek peace neglect their responsibilities, why should we be surprised that extremists behave like terrorists?
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is the author of Iffat Al Thunayan: An Arabian Queen, London: Sussex Academic Press, 2015.