So what have we learnt from the huddles of Iowans who came out to church basements, community centres and the back rooms of restaurants on Monday night? It’s these farmers and teachers, housewives and the politically motivated who selected which respective candidate will earn their state caucus delegates for the Republican and Democratic national conventions this summer. It’s those conventions that will ultimately pick each party’s nomination to run for the White House, but the race for the Oval Office began in earnest in those basements and back rooms.
First off, Iowa is only important because it’s the first test for those who want to become the most powerful person in the world. After months of airtime, hours of debate, endless speeches and pitches, we got to see who Iowans take seriously. The New Hampshire caucuses are next week and after these first two straw votes, the candidates should get a realistic snapshot of their chances come those national conventions.
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz, the fiery ultraconservative Texas senator loathed by his own party, narrowly squeezed out Donald Trump, another party outsider. Together, these two have managed to solidify the views of the Tea Party element within Republican ranks to freeze out mainstream middle-American thinking, values and views.
If both poll well in New Hampshire next week, then there’s a clear message for most of the also-rans in the crowded Republican field: Get out of the race before long-term lasting damage is done and try and unite behind a moderate candidate who can be genuinely electable come November.
Yes, Cruz won the delegates and the battle of the demagogues with Trump, but Florida senator Marco Rubio polled a better-than-expected third. That’s a boost for his mainstream credentials. For him, improving on that in New Hampshire — a state that’s more moderate than Iowa — will go a long way towards establishing his legitimate claim to run, as long as others clear the field.
For Democrats, Iowa showed what’s been known all along: It’s a two-horse race. And that means that Martin O’Malley, the former Maryland governor, should clear the field. And it’s going to be a bruising and long caucus-by-caucus slugfest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. If Hillary believed that this nomination process would be a five-month coronation, that’s no longer the case. She might like her chances in New Hampshire; Sanders certainly will, with strong New England connections from neighbouring Vermont. Iowa may have been the first test, but New Hampshire will be the first real test.