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The quest for early votes
Early voting has started in 11 states. That means light at the end of the tunnel. The presidential campaign has been going on for two long years, about half of a presidential term, the longest campaign in history.
- By Katharine Q. Seelye, New York Times
- Published: 23:32 September 26, 2008
Washington: Early voting has started in 11 states. That means light at the end of the tunnel. The presidential campaign has been going on for two long years, about half of a presidential term, the longest campaign in history.
And yet, the idea of voters actually voting now may seem slightly alarming. The country is in the midst of a financial crisis and the presidential candidates are still formulating their responses to it.
Not only do we not know how John McCain or Barack Obama might fix things. We do not know how the possibility of adding $700 billion (2,570 billion) in debt might affect their entire agenda - for everything from tax cuts and health care to Iraq and Afghanistan. McCain even dramatically "suspended" his campaign to focus on the financial crisis.
Whatever happens in this combustible climate, the candidates are acting now in real time as the financial crisis unfolds. This is an incredible laboratory in which voters can watch the test subjects react before their very eyes; rarely has an event of such magnitude inserted itself this close to an election.
Do campaigns matter?
And yet many voters will not be waiting to see what develops. All told, 31 states and the District of Columbia allow some form of early or advance voting, including vote-by-mail, early or in-person absentee voting or permanent absentee voting.
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Does early voting send a signal that the campaigns do not matter? We know that many voters make up their minds based on character and personality cues, not on issues per se, but whether they believe a candidate has the judgement to lead the nation through a crisis. Some voters will be casting ballots before a single debate.
"I find it flabbergasting that states are doing this," said Richard Winger, an expert in ballot access. "You wouldn't expect a jury to make its decision before both sides had presented their case."
Winger, for one, thinks early voting should be allowed no more than two weeks before an election.
But early voting is becoming more and more popular. In 2000, about 14 per cent of voters nationwide cast their ballots early, according to Paul Gronke, a consultant to the Pew Centre on the States. By 2004, the number of early voters had climbed to 20 per cent. By 2006 it was up to 25 per cent.
This year, Gronke projects that at least 30 per cent of all voters, and possibly as many as 33 per cent - one in every three voters - will cast their ballots before Election Day. Those who do vote this early tend to be the most partisan, studies show. They have already made up their minds and probably made them up long ago. Perhaps 10 per cent of voters remain truly undecided.
But this year, election officials themselves are undertaking aggressive campaigns to encourage voters to cast their ballots early.
Why? Because they are expecting the biggest voter turnout in recent history, perhaps ever, with somewhere between 125 million and 200 million voters casting ballots, according to a report issued Wednesday by the National Association of Secretaries of State. Some states, the report said, are predicting turnout as high as 80 per cent.
Preparing for the onslaught
Many elections officials are concerned that record turnout could create snafus that could lead to a repeat of Florida 2000. They figure that if more people vote early, the less likely they will face long lines and complaints at the polling place, which could delay the tally of votes and draw the glare of the spotlight. The report issued today describes the steps that states are taking to prepare for the onslaught. More than half of all states have devised contingency plans which this year go beyond preparing for natural disasters and security threats, their preparations have included projects to encourage people to vote early.
"There's aggressive outreach this year," said Gronke. "Registration is way up in many states and many, like Ohio, have complicated ballots. They're trying to reduce the pressure they're going to be experiencing on Election Day."
Avoiding election-day meltdown
Requests for early ballots show that these efforts have paid off, and that interest is high. In Pennsylvania, for example, officials said that in 2004, they had 54,200 requests for absentee ballots; this year, they have had 84,400 requests.
The whole point of early voting, when it started, was to help increase turnout by making voting more convenient. That is not the problem this year. Now, Doug Chapin of the Pew Centre says, it is all about avoiding an election-day meltdown.
But the whole exercise raises the question of when do voters ever have enough information to judge a candidate since being president is so different from running a campaign. Even a long one.
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