Democrats brimming with optimism

Washington: After a decade in the political wilderness, Democrats are beginning to predict confidently, if quietly, that they will win control of the House of Representatives in next week's elections, and possibly emerge with a relatively robust majority.

The optimism coincides with a Republican retreat on Tuesday in three costly, highly competitive races in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, as well as polls showing continued public dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush and the war in Iraq.

In addition, fundraising is running significantly stronger than two years ago, $104.5 million (Dh384 million) through October 18. That represents an increase of more than 30 per cent, and has allowed Democrats to launch late-campaign television advertising in several districts in recent days in an attempt to maximise their gains on election day, November 7.

To regain control of the 435-member House, Democrats need to gain 15 seats. In the 100-member Senate, they need six. All 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate are at stake.

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said in an interview there has never been an election in which a president's approval rating was below 40 per cent "and his party has not lost the 15 seats" that Democrats need to gain control this year. Bush's approval ratings hover in the mid- to high 30s. Despite the developments, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader, and Congressman Rahm Emanuel, head of the party's campaign committee, have told aides to avoid predictions of victory before the votes are counted.

"Anybody who's been involved in politics for the past 10 years can tell you that a week out, you've still got a long week ahead of you," said Bill Burton of the Democratic campaign committee. "And we are absolutely not taking anything for granted."

Republicans, too, say that with a week of campaigning to go, Democrats are ill-advised to celebrate. They note that an extraordinary number of races remain very close, and say their Republican get-out-the-vote operation will help pull enough of their candidates to victory to preserve their majority.

Eager to persuade conservatives to vote, Bush, Vice-President Dick Cheney and Republican leaders attack Democrats steadily as favouring a policy of retreat in Iraq and higher taxes at home. Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show that as of Thursday night, the Democratic campaign committee has spent significant amounts on television advertising on five of the state's nine seats currently in Republican hands.