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Candidates go head-to-head
Some of the international reactions to the seemingly never ending presidential election process. It seems barely is one president inaugurated than the politicking begins, all over again.
- By Richard Quest, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:31 February 4, 2008
Washington: "It never ends." "It just keeps going." "Why does it take so long?"
Some of the international reactions to the seemingly never ending presidential election process. It seems barely is one president inaugurated than the politicking begins, all over again.
Funnily enough, I have been hearing much the same comments as I travel around California. In a state where the Terminator is governor, and where national trends are set, Californians too are getting sick and tired of the never-ending politics. Again and again, they are bombarded with "Will Hillary make it?" "Is America ready for a Black President." "Is John McCain too old?" "Are the rest too conservative for the liberal west coast?" They have just about had enough! And it's still 10 months to the election itself.
But guess what? In the last few weeks the race has suddenly taken on a new life and urgency. And it's all because of Super Tuesday. This year is very different. For the first time more than 20 states are holding their party votes on the same day. It's the closest thing to a US National Primary that's ever taken place: No wonder they are calling it 'Super Dooper Tuesday'.
(By the way, for those who aren't sure about the difference between a primary and a caucus, don't worry. Most Americans couldn't answer that question either. And frankly, it's not of major importance. Who wins the state wide vote is the only thing you need concern yourself with).
Delegates
California is a state rich in delegates for the lucky candidates. And although winning the Golden State won't win you the nomination on its own, it's nearly 20 per cent of the total needed to win. It's not surprising that from the liberal cafés of West Hollywood, to the conservative mansions of Orange County the voters realise "This Election Matters".
As for the issues. As the rest of the world worries about the war in Iraq, that has gone down the agenda in the United States. Voters seem to know that whoever gets the White House, an end to American involvement is coming and probably sooner rather than later. No candidate, with perhaps the exception of John McCain, could seriously be elected and not heed the voters' call that, sooner or later, it is time the troops were brought home.
But Iraq is not top of the agenda. It is the economy. In California the mortgage crisis has seen the number of homes being repossessed rise by 400 per cent to the highest level in 15 years. And everyone has a tale of woe and worry about credit card debt, worries about job security and a recession they believe is already here.
So the top question everyone asks the candidates is: "What are you going to do about the economy?" Not "When are you going to bring the troops home?" (although that is never far behind.)
As for the criticism that the US election process never seems to end: It is a blessing and a curse. Drink a coffee on trendy Santa Monica Boulevard and the "beautiful people" will say they have had enough politics. But they will also know the candidates better!
At least 15 debates and countless tough interviews have allowed Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney to finely hone their message. Politicians have been tried and tested. They may be personalities but they also now have policies. You may not like where they stand, but at least you now know they stand somewhere.
And since this is the first time since 1928 that neither a sitting president or vice-president has stood for re-election to the highest office in the land, that is the true excitement of this Super Tuesday.
Because whichever man or woman finally prevails, and goes onto become Mr or Madam President, there is only one certainty of which we can be sure: There will be a brand new "Leader of the Free World."
Richard Quest is a CNN anchor and correspondent
Hillary Clinton
Age: 60
Campaign cash: $118.3 million
Votes pledged: 232
Clinton factor: Name recognition a key advantage. Touts her White House experience as First Lady when Bill Clinton was president and her eight years in the US senate. Strong support among Labour unions and Hispanics. She rode high as national favourite until losing the Iowa and South Carolina primaries to chief rival Barack Obama.
Her husband's aggressive style on the campaign trail has alienated supporters. Daughter Chelsea accompanies her while campaigning to counter her image of cold intellectual. Hillary voted to authorise Iraq war, says she voted based on her assessment at the time, but did not see her vote as an authority for pre-emptive war. She mobilises the highest negative voter reactions of any candidate.
Barack Obama
Age: 46
Campaign cash: $103.8 million
Votes pledged: 158
New wave: Born in Hawaii to a Kenyan father and a White American mother. Obama is viewed as charismatic and inspirational yet short on experience. Appeals to younger, centre-left voters yearning for change and a bridging of political divisions. Won the endorsement of the brother and daughter of John F. Kennedy. Promises "a new kind of politics" to solve problems of ordinary Americans. Was first black editor of Harvard Law Review, later a social worker in Chicago. Obama was Illionis senator for eight years but was only elected to US senate in 2004. Says he always opposed Iraq war, caused a stir by saying he would talk with leaders of US foes such as Iran and North Korea.
John McCain
Age: 71
Campaign cash: $42.1 million
Votes pledged: 97
War hero: Widely respected maverick US senator and war hero from Arizona who ran for president in 2000 and is now leading national polls after wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Was tortured as prisoner of war in Vietnam. Strongly backs Bush's "surge" strategy in Iraq. Has struggled to raise campaign money, but that could change with endorsements by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who dropped out of the race, and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. At 72 on Inauguration Day, he would be the oldest president to take office. Top priority for him as president is winning the war against extremism.
Mitt Romney
Age: 60
Campaign cash: $90.1 million
Votes pledged: 74
Downturn: Romney did well in polls through much of 2006 until his losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina. Touts business credentials as chief executive who rescued 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, made millions with private-equity firm. Pin-striped, well-coiffed look.
Governed left-leaning state of Massachusetts, now suspicious to evangelical voters for moving to the right on hot-button social issues such as abortion. Mormon faith is wild card, he seeks to counter by saying it won't influence decisions as president. Talks tough on crime, national security. Advocates expansion of military by 100,000 soldiers and easier access by investigators to private data.
Mike Huckabee
Age: 52
Campaign cash: $9 million
Votes pledged: 29
'Authentic candidate': Southern Baptist pastor whose socially conservative views rallied evangelical voters and lifted him into the lead in Iowa, the first state to hold a nominating poll.
Was governor of Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas until January 2007. Says he's "more authentic" than rivals. Calls for radical tax reform, steps to curb illegal immigration and constitutional amendment against abortion. Lost 55kg after being diagnosed with diabetes in 2003. Plays bass guitar in his own rock band.
What next? Post Tuesday Scenarios
Democrats: In a scenario considered unlikely by both campaigns, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama could gather up enough delegates and state victories on Super Tuesday to convince the other that victory is no longer possible.
The most likely outcome is that the two rivals come out of the 22 Democratic contests close enough to one another that follow on contests through early March in states like Maryland, Virginia, Ohio and Texas are likely to decide the nomination. Some analysts believe that should Clinton run the table on big, delegate-rich states like New York, California, New Jersey, Missouri and Massachusetts and Obama only show up well in small, southern states and his homebase of Illinois, super delegates - unelected senior party officials and luminaries who get to weigh in on party nominees - might begin to peel towards the former first lady.
In a third possibility, the two rivals match each other delegate by delegate and arrive at the party's nominating convention in Denver in August, for a bruising floor fight for the nomination.
Republicans: Senator John McCain virtually runs the table of delegate-rich states like California, New York and New Jersey and Tennessee, convincing rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee who split conservative votes, that there is no hope in going on, and he becomes the de-facto nominee.
In a second possibility, Romney manages to corall conservatives who dislike McCain, and wins enough big states and delegates to keep going. A shock win over McCain in California for instance, along with victories in Illinois, Alaska and Missouri could convince Republicans further on in the election cycle that McCain is vulnerable.
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