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Ministers plot to force Brown out
Gordon Brown is being openly undermined by Cabinet ministers who are now publicly questioning his future as Prime Minister.
- By Andrew Porter, Robert Winnett and Rosa Prince, Telegraph Group
- Published: 23:24 July 26, 2008
London: Gordon Brown is being openly undermined by Cabinet ministers who are now publicly questioning his future as Prime Minister.
The Labour Party has no option but to replace him as leader or face certain defeat at the next general election, said one.
"We cannot go any lower," the minister said, following Labour's disastrous defeat in the Glasgow East by-election, one of the biggest upsets in political history.
"We are at rock bottom. The evidence is there for all to see. We are not a one-nation party any more. We are now a no-nation party. We cannot win in Scotland, we cannot win in England, we cannot win in Wales.
"There is only one thing that can be done, and it's a change of leader."
The unprecedented Cabinet revolt against Brown came as:
- Trade unions turned against the Prime Minister, with one leader calling on Labour to call a leadership election to "clear the air."
- Jack Straw was installed by bookmakers as the favourite to become Prime Minister, with Brown now odds-on to step down.
- A number of key Cabinet ministers failed to defend Brown publicly.
- Economic figures revealed that Britain was facing a recession, with economic growth falling in May and June.
A political first
However, with Brown's premiership in the balance, Labour was warned that it faced considerable anger if it chose another leader.
It would be the first time in history that the country would have successive prime ministers who had not been installed after a general election. The prospect may lead to a dilemma for potential leadership candidates worried that they would not have a mandate to govern the country.
Should he be forced to step down, Brown would be the first Prime Minister since Neville Chamberlain, who resigned in 1940, not to fight a general election.
The Scottish National Party unexpectedly won Glasgow East, Labour's third safest seat in Scotland, by overturning a Labour majority of more than 13,000.
With the party facing being wiped out at a future general election - even the Prime Minister's own seat would be lost if the Glasgow swing was repeated - only a dramatic reversal in Brown's fortunes is likely to save his position.
A poll today for The Independent newspaper puts the Tories 22 points ahead of Labour. The ComRes Poll has the Tories on 46 per cent, Labour on 24 and the Liberal Democrats on 18. If replicated in a general election, Cameron would win by a landslide majority of 236 seats.
Some of Brown's closest ministerial allies said any attempt to persuade him to go would not take place until September at the earliest. Although some older Cabinet ministers defended Brown yesterday, a number of the younger Cabinet stars were notably quiet.
A growing alliance of Cabinet ministers, Blairite figures and back-bench MPs were prepared to brief the media on their growing frustration over Brown's failures.
A former Cabinet minister close to Tony Blair said: "The writing is on the wall for Gordon Brown as PM.
"All the MPs are now going off on holiday pondering one issue: Is GB a winner or a loser? They will conclude he is a loser. If we stick with him we will go to a certain defeat."
It is expected that Brown may learn his fate from a group of the so-called "grey men", who include Jack Straw, Geoff Hoon and Alistair Darling. They will privately urge him to step down if the Cabinet deems it necessary after the summer break.
A Labour backbencher, Graham Stringer, said the Cabinet should force a leadership contest if Brown refused to resign. "It really requires members of the Cabinet to have a closed and honest discussion with Gordon Brown," he said.
"We need a new start and that can only come from a debate around the leadership. I hope those discussions will take place. It really is a question of whether the Labour Party has the will to win the next general election."
The party will have to decide whether to appoint an older caretaker leader such as Straw or Alan Johnson - or take the more risky decision to appoint a younger leader such as David Miliband or James Purnell. Jon Cruddas, a backbencher popular with the unions, is also being urged to stand.
The Conservatives were furious that Labour was even considering appointing another leader. David Cameron demanded yesterday that a general election should be called in the autumn.
"I think the Prime Minister should have his holiday, but then I think we need an election. I think we need change in this country, and that's how change should come about," he said.
Defiance
However, Brown was defiant amid the growing speculation over his position and insisted that he was the right man to lead Britain through the economic crisis.
In an unscripted speech to trade unionists and Labour activists at the so-called Warwick Two meeting to discuss future policy, the Prime Minister said: "We will do whatever is necessary over the next few months to help hard-working families through these difficult times."
He also gave one of his strongest hints yet that he was planning to remain in position and fight an election in 2010 by urging his party to rally behind him or risk the Conservatives being elected.
The Prime Minister privately believes that he is the victim of the global economic turbulence and that his position will recover as the economy improves.
Alan Greenspan, the former head of the American Federal Reserve, is understood to have privately advised the Prime Minister that the economy is likely to start picking up in about six months.
Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, said: "Gordon Brown is the best Prime Minister. He is the best leader. He has a clear sense of direction where he believes we as a country ought to go."
The Future: Lawmakers' options
Talk of Gordon Brown being ousted has heated up. But it is not so easy to achieve. Here are the main options open to Labour MPs brave enough to try.
Formal challenge
A challenger would first require the backing of 20 per cent of Labour MPs - 70 of the current 350. A call for a contest would then have to be approved at the annual conference on a card vote. If passed, Brown would have to face a contest. The chances of this happening are low because it would be hard to persuade so many MPs to put their heads above the parapet. Cabinet heavyweights would be obliged to rally behind Brown unless they were willing to resign.
Stalking horse
A no-hoper would stand in order to unite Labour's factions and force the PM to resign, at which point the real likely successors inside the Cabinet would be freed to stand in their own right. Margaret Thatcher was wounded in 1989 by stalking horse Sir Anthony Meyer. He paved the way for Michael Heseltine's serious challenge a year later. But the aftermath was bloody and Labour has no similar tradition.
Men in grey suits
A delegation of Cabinet ministers and party heavyweights from all wings of Labour would troop into No 10 to tell Brown he has lost their confidence and must stand down in the interests of the party. A threat of Cabinet resignations would add to the pressure. It could well happen - but not easily because the PM is making clear he aims to soldier on.
Brown stays on
The parliamentary summer recess will cool the chances for plotting and his enemies could suffer a disaster of their own. And a modest rise in party fortunes could rally MPs to his side.
- Evening Standard
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