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Saakashvili likely to face run-off
Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili is likely to win Saturday's snap presidential election but most analysts and polls say it is unclear if his victory will be decisive enough to avoid a second-round run-off.
- Reuters
- Published: 00:42 January 4, 2008
Tbilisi: Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili is likely to win Saturday's snap presidential election but most analysts and polls say it is unclear if his victory will be decisive enough to avoid a second-round run-off.
Staunch US ally Saakashvili called the snap election in November to repair his battered authority and democratic reputation and Western allies will be watching to ensure the vote is squeaky clean.
Saakashvili, who swept to power in a 2003 "Rose Revolution", dismayed his Western allies when he responded to massive opposition protests in November by sending in police with tear gas and closing down the biggest opposition television station.
He called the election months early as part of a package of concessions to ease the stand-off with the opposition, which accuses him of ruling in an autocratic style and failing to ease poverty and unemployment.
Authoritarian rule
"Saakashvili has been ruling the country in an authoritarian way for four years putting his own ambitions and opinion higher than the rule of law," said David Usupashvili, leader of the opposition Republican party.
Georgia's opinion polls flip-flop over who is winning the election race and most analysts say the only certainty is that many Georgians will decide whom to vote for at the last moment.
"The presidential poll will be very unpredictable," said Ramaz Sakvarelidze, an analyst and a professor at Tbilisi State University.
A candidate needs to win over 50 per cent of the vote to win outright in the first round. If there is no clear winner the top two candidates face each other in a run-off on January 19.
Georgia, an ex-Soviet state of 4.5 million people in the Caucasus mountains, has strategic importance.
Tug-of-war
A staunch US ally, Georgia has been the focus of a geopolitical tug-of-war with Russia, which accuses the West of encroaching on its traditional sphere of influence.
The vote is unlikely to change Georgia's pro-Western policies or its tense relations with Russia. All leading candidates back Saakashvili's drive for membership of Nato and the European Union.
Saakashvili's main challengers are expected to be Levan Gachechiladze, a 43-year-old wine producer whose bid is backed by the opposition coalition, and Shalva Natelashvili, whose Labour party split from the coalition.
Multi-millionaire Badri Patarkatsishvili, whose Imedi television station became the main mouthpiece for the opposition protests in November, is also contesting the election although his support is estimated at under 10 per cent.
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