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Colombo unlikely to be pressurised
As Sri Lankan soldiers stumble and totter in trenches made muddy by heavy rain in a pitched battle to defeat the Tamil Tigers, India is resisting attempts to drag it into what is being called a "fight to the finish" in the 25 year old civil war.
- By Amrit Dhillon, Correspondent
- Published: 23:56 October 30, 2008
New Delhi: As Sri Lankan soldiers stumble and totter in trenches made muddy by heavy rain in a pitched battle to defeat the Tamil Tigers, India is resisting attempts to drag it into what is being called a "fight to the finish" in the 25 year old civil war.
UN relief agencies estimate that half a million Tamils have become refugees since the military offensive against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) began in January.
Around half of these have been displaced in the past few months as the army has tightened the noose around the bastions of the Tamil Tigers in the north, with a fierce and prolonged battle underway to seize the LTTE's de facto "capital" of Kilinochchi.
Ethnic Tamils, caught between the two sides, have fled their homes. "Apart from the Red Cross, no relief agency can go to the area to provide help because the government has made it clear it can't guarantee anyone's safety," said James Elder, a Unicef official in Colombo.
The ruling Congress has come under severe pressure from Tamil parties in Tamil Nadu in south India, just across the Palk Straits from Sri Lanka, to intervene in the war to protect Tamil civilians.
Indian Tamils have deep ethnic and cultural links with Tamils in Sri Lanka. One Tamil party, the Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK) has been holding rallies in support of the Tamils in the island nation.
These parties are members of the coalition government in New Delhi. At a meeting in Tamil Nadu on October 14, 39 MPs from the state threatened to withdraw from the federal government if it failed to halt the war in a fortnight.
If these key allies had pulled out, the government would have found itself in a minority. Fearful of losing their support, Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee stressed India's concern at the plight of Tamils caught up in the hostilities when Sri Lanka's special envoy, Basil Rajapakshe, visited New Delhi earlier this week.
"He assured that all possible steps were being taken to protect the lives and property of the Tamil community, many of whom have been displaced many times over during the past few decades," Mukherjee said after the meeting.
The Tamil MPs, satisfied with this reassurance, withdrew their ultimatum, prompting sighs of relief in the federal government.
India intervened in the Sri Lankan conflict in 1987 when it sent troops to supervise a peace pact but ended up fighting the LTTE.
Some Indian news reports have suggested that New Delhi, to save its own skin, might come to the help of the LTTE and rescue it from what seems like imminent defeat by pressuring Colombo to ease up on its offensive.
Noise
Defence analyst Manoj Joshi says this is unlikely and says Tamil politicians have been making a lot of noise of late about "saving the Tamils" due to the imminent state elections.
"Unofficially, India probably feels the army should go ahead and finish the job against the Tigers. It has no sympathy for them. And there is absolutely no question of India attempting military intervention as it did in the 1980s," said Joshi.
Dr M. Mayilvaganan, associate fellow at the New Delhi Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis, also believes that India has no leverage over Colombo to stop the offensive.
"This is the first time in 25 years that Colombo has the upper hand with the Tigers. Army morale is high, the government enjoys popular support and they are confident of winning this time. Colombo won't listen to New Delhi," he said. Mukherjee admitted much the thing when he told Tamil MPs that he could not compel a foreign government to announce a ceasefire.
Even before the Tamil MPs withdrew their threat, Mayilvaganan had said all they were seeking from Mukherjee was a "token" gesture of support for the Tamil community in Sri Lanka.
"New Delhi has given them the face-saver they needed. It has also agreed to send humanitarian aid for displaced Tamils through the Red Cross and Colombo has agreed to accept it. Beyond that, India can't do a thing," said Mayilvaganan.
War coming to a head
Experts say the Sri Lankan crisis appears to be coming to a head with the Sri Lankan army determined to finish off the LTTE. The army seems poised to take over the last Tiger-controlled areas, although it is taking much longer than expected due to fierce resistance by the Tigers.
Mukherjee has indicated that he would like the Sri Lankan army to hold back from a total defeat of the Tigers to prevent another wave of refugees.
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