Uttar Pradesh headed for a fractured mandate — agency

New Delhi Uttar Pradesh could be headed for a hung assembly as the state's voters seem poised to give a fractured mandate.

According to an assessment made by an agency, the state's ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is ahead of others after conclusion of the first three rounds of the seven-phased elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Ban on exit polls

The Election Commission has banned exit polls until elections in all five states conclude on March 3.

So far, voting has taken place in 170 constituencies for the 403-member state assembly.

The agency's assessment suggests that the high voter turnout is damaging the ruling BSP's prospects while maximum benefit is accruing to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since the Muslim and OBC (other backward classes) votes are getting split between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress.

The Congress' resurgence is only serving to harm the SP since the two share the same vote bank. It has helped BJP surge to the second position.

So far, voting has taken place only in eastern Uttar Pradesh and some districts of central Uttar Pradesh. The final result may change during the next four phases.

BSP the front-runner

As of now, the agency estimates that BSP may end up wining 68 out of 170 seats while BJP could win as many as 55 of these seats.

The SP, which has been aspiring to come to power in the state after five years, may win only 40 of these seats, thanks to the Congress' resurgence.

Congress' resurgence may not enable it to win many seats since the assessment shows it could gain only five seats while other parties are poised to win two.

Uttar Pradesh had been giving a split verdict for long. It came as a surprise when the BSP emerged the clear winner in 2007 by bagging 206 seats, getting a simple majority which was enough to sustain it in power for the past five years.

Remaining phases

The assessment says much will depend on the voters of central and western regions of the state, which account for 233 seats.

Incidentally, the assessment is not far from the pre-poll surveys. The pre-poll surveys had suggested that no government can be formed unless two parties come together to form an alliance.

Ploy for Lok Sabha polls

However, both BJP and the Congress are threatening to play spoilsport by not offering support to either the BSP or SP. They feel discrediting both the BSP and SP would help them bag a larger chunk of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 general elections.

The state sends the largest number of MPs to Parliament.